Market snapshot
Equities, sectors, F&O movers, commodities, currency, bonds and institutional flows at the 5 August 2026 close.
Equities: Wednesday close
The Nifty opened 54 points higher at 24,669 after the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at record highs.
Selling during the opening hour pushed the index below 24,600. It recovered towards 24,650 at around 11 am, but then gave up those gains and fell to around 24,570 by noon.
Weakness increased during the second half. The Nifty fell below 24,530 and touched an intraday low of around 24,500 at 2:15 pm.
The index recovered around 70 points before regular trading in F&O stocks ended at 3:15 pm. It was at 24,570 at that point. The closing auction added another 55 points, taking the official close to 24,624.65.
| Index | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,624.65 | +0.04% | 24,614.90 |
| Sensex | 78,581.00 | +0.19% | 78,428.95 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 74,469.95 | +0.35% | 74,210.55 |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 23,403.45 | +0.24% | 23,347.75 |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 | 18,321.95 | +0.70% | 18,194.30 |
| Nifty Microcap 250 | 25,956.70 | +1.29% | 25,625.90 |
Zerodha Markets
Sector performance
Metal was the strongest sector, rising 1.72%. Auto gained 1.27%, while Realty rose 0.84%.
Media was the weakest sector, falling 1.58%. Bank and FMCG both declined 0.29%.
| Sector | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty Metal | 13,256.35 | +1.72% | 13,032.30 |
| Nifty Auto | 29,411.55 | +1.27% | 29,041.30 |
| Nifty Realty | 898.70 | +0.84% | 891.20 |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 8,541.30 | +0.72% | 8,479.90 |
| Nifty Energy | 38,830.05 | +0.03% | 38,816.65 |
| Nifty Consumer Durables | 40,258.40 | −0.12% | 40,307.35 |
| Nifty Pharma | 26,563.55 | −0.13% | 26,597.50 |
| Nifty Service | 31,559.70 | −0.15% | 31,608.50 |
| Nifty IT | 31,404.05 | −0.16% | 31,454.15 |
| Nifty Bank | 57,739.95 | −0.29% | 57,907.20 |
| Nifty FMCG | 49,383.50 | −0.29% | 49,527.10 |
| Nifty Media | 1,575.15 | −1.58% | 1,600.50 |
Zerodha Markets
F&O winners and losers
Hindustan Zinc was the strongest F&O stock, rising 6.05%. Jubilant FoodWorks gained 4.30%, while Bosch rose 4.17%.
| Top gainers | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| HINDZINC | 596.95 | +6.05% | 562.90 |
| JUBLFOOD | 485.00 | +4.30% | 465.00 |
| BOSCHLTD | 42,920.00 | +4.17% | 41,200.00 |
| PNBHOUSING | 1,121.60 | +3.85% | 1,080.00 |
| SONACOMS | 814.60 | +3.51% | 787.00 |
Kalyan Jewellers was the biggest loser, falling 3.70%. MCX declined 3.04%, while Marico fell 2.63%.
| Top losers | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| KALYANKJIL | 569.50 | −3.70% | 591.40 |
| MCX | 2,598.60 | −3.04% | 2,680.00 |
| MARICO | 852.00 | −2.63% | 875.00 |
| DELHIVERY | 470.25 | −2.44% | 482.00 |
| NHPC | 78.60 | −2.36% | 80.50 |
Source: Zerodha Technicals.
Commodities
All seven MCX commodity futures in the report ended higher.
Silver rose 1.81%, while gold gained 1.31%. Crude oil increased 1.25% to ₹7,304.
| MCX futures | Price | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ₹1,44,450.00 | +1.31% | ₹1,42,589.00 |
| Silver | ₹2,25,628.00 | +1.81% | ₹2,21,615.00 |
| Crude oil | ₹7,304.00 | +1.25% | ₹7,214.00 |
| Natural gas | ₹257.30 | +0.55% | ₹255.90 |
| Zinc | ₹389.30 | +0.48% | ₹387.45 |
| Copper | ₹1,367.45 | +0.18% | ₹1,365.00 |
| Aluminium | ₹345.00 | +0.06% | ₹344.80 |
Zerodha Markets
Currency and bond yields
The rupee strengthened against the US dollar. USDINR fell 0.19% to 95.28.
The US 10-year bond yield declined 1.28% to 4.62. India’s 10-year yield fell 0.43% to 6.79.
| Instrument | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDINR | 95.28 | −0.19% | 95.45 |
| US 10-year bond yield | 4.62 | −1.28% | 4.68 |
| India 10-year bond yield | 6.79 | −0.43% | 6.82 |
Institutional flows
Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth a net ₹943 crore on 5 August. Domestic institutional investors bought shares worth a net ₹2,883 crore.
Over the five sessions shown below, FIIs were net buyers of ₹6,327 crore. DIIs were net buyers of ₹3,914 crore.
| Date | FII net value | DII net value |
|---|---|---|
| 5 August 2026 | −₹943 crore | ₹2,883 crore |
| 4 August 2026 | ₹2,446 crore | −₹936 crore |
| 3 August 2026 | ₹922 crore | ₹1,571 crore |
| 31 July 2026 | ₹278 crore | ₹2,260 crore |
| 30 July 2026 | ₹3,624 crore | −₹1,864 crore |
| Five-session total | ₹6,327 crore | ₹3,914 crore |
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report; NSE.
Macro view
Monetary policy: Repo rate remains at 5.25%
The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth consecutive policy review.
The decision was in line with expectations. Policymakers considered geopolitical risks, changing crude oil prices, an uneven monsoon, weakness in the rupee and imported inflation.
The Monetary Policy Committee maintained its neutral stance.
It raised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.6%. It lowered its retail inflation forecast to 5% from 5.1%.
The MPC said headline CPI inflation had moved above the target, as expected. Most of the increase came from food and fuel prices.
The RBI targets headline consumer inflation of 4%, with a permitted range of 2% to 6%.
Economists described the policy as broadly dovish. However, some still expect rate increases later this year if inflation rises again.
HSBC economists expect the RBI to raise rates by a total of 50 basis points across the October and December policy meetings.
Source: Mint.
Polymer notes and Tata Sons
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank plans to introduce polymer notes by the beginning of FY28.
The RBI will first run a pilot project to test how the notes perform in Indian weather and operating conditions.
The RBI did not provide clarity on whether Tata Sons will have to list on the stock market.
Source: Mint.
Loan-pricing rules
The RBI plans to prepare rules that standardise how regulated financial institutions calculate interest on loans.
The proposed framework will cover differences in market practices such as day-count conventions and the dates on which benchmark interest rates are reset.
Currently, 67.6% of bank loans are linked to the external benchmark lending rate system.
Source: Mint.
FCNR(B) inflows
The RBI does not plan to close its special FCNR(B) deposit scheme before the scheduled deadline of 30 September.
India raised $40.8 billion through the scheme in only 53 days.
FCNR(B) deposits accounted for 90% of the total.
| Bank category | Inflows |
|---|---|
| Public-sector banks | $8.8 billion |
| Private-sector banks | $10.7 billion |
| Foreign banks | $8.4 billion |
Source: Mint; Reserve Bank of India.
Services PMI
The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 53.3 in July from 57.4 in June.
This was the lowest reading since February 2022. It was also below the long-term average of 54.4.
A reading above 50 still means the services sector is expanding.
Only 6% of companies in the survey reported an increase in employee numbers during July. Around 92% reported no change.
Input-cost inflation was modest and fell to its lowest level in six months.
However, prices charged by service companies rose at the fastest rate since April.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| June | 57.4 |
| July | 53.3 |
| Long-term average | 54.4 |
Source: Mint; S&P Global.
Government capital expenditure
The Centre spent ₹3.4 trillion on capital expenditure during Q1FY27.
This was around 28% of the full-year capital expenditure budget of ₹12.22 trillion.
Source: Mint; Finance Ministry.
Apprenticeship target
The government raised its target under the National Apprenticeship Training Scheme by 40%.
It aims to cover 600,000 students in 2026-27, up from 428,000 in the previous year.
The government allocated ₹1,250 crore to the programme for the current financial year.
A new quality standard requires at least 40% of apprentices to receive a rating of “good” or better.
Source: Mint.
Labour market
The unemployment rate for people aged 15 and above was 5.5% in June 2026. It was unchanged from May.
The annual unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in 2025 from 7% in 2024.
Source: Mint; Periodic Labour Force Survey.
AI-based review of rural audits
The Ministry of Rural Development will use artificial intelligence to assess how quickly and effectively states respond to internal audit findings.
The ministry received ₹2.31 trillion for major programmes in 2026-27.
| Programme | Allocation |
|---|---|
| Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission | ₹95,692.31 crore |
| PMAY-Gramin | ₹54,916.70 crore |
| DAY-NRLM | ₹19,200 crore |
| PMGSY | ₹19,000 crore |
Source: Mint.
Possible levy for strategic fuel reserves
The government may impose a charge on cooking gas and natural gas users to help finance a planned strategic fuel reserve worth $42 billion.
The Petroleum Ministry is considering:
- A levy of ₹1.29 per kilogram of LPG. This could raise around $460 million annually and add around ₹18 to the price of a standard domestic cylinder.
- A levy of ₹1.43 per standard cubic metre of natural gas. This could generate around $1 billion a year.
Source: Reuters via Mint.
Truck fuel-efficiency rules
The government resumed discussions with the automobile industry on stricter fuel-efficiency standards for medium and heavy commercial vehicles.
The new standards may take effect from April 2027.
They would use the updated Constant Speed Fuel Consumption testing method, which was first introduced in 2022.
Source: Mint.
Rabies-death investigations
India will investigate every suspected human death from rabies for the first time.
Each investigation will involve officials from the health, veterinary, municipal and forest departments.
Local authorities must begin field investigations within 48 hours after receiving a notification.
A final report must be submitted within seven days.
Source: Mint; National Centre for Disease Control.
Extensions for senior officials
The Appointments Committee of the Cabinet approved one-year extensions for Cabinet Secretary T. V. Somanathan and Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan.
Source: Mint; Department of Personnel and Training.
Offshore oil exploration programme
The Union Cabinet approved the ₹84,000 crore Samudra Manthan programme for offshore deepwater exploration.
The five-year scheme aims to increase domestic oil and gas output and reduce India’s dependence on imported crude oil, which is close to 90%.
India produced around 28 million tonnes of oil in FY26, down from 28.7 million tonnes in FY25.
Natural gas production fell to 34,776 million standard cubic metres from 36,113 million standard cubic metres.
Petroleum-product consumption reached a record 241.6 million tonnes in FY26.
Additional domestic production could reduce India’s crude oil import bill by nearly ₹1 trillion each year.
The government will cover up to 50% of deepwater drilling costs, subject to a limit of ₹675 crore for each well.
The programme’s allocation includes:
| Component | Allocation |
|---|---|
| Drilling 60 deepwater exploration wells | ₹43,200 crore |
| Collecting and processing modern offshore seismic data | ₹28,534 crore |
| Common offshore infrastructure hubs | ₹10,000 crore |
| Domestic manufacturing and service zones | ₹2,000 crore |
The programme aims to increase annual domestic oil and gas production from around 62 million tonnes of oil equivalent to 80 million tonnes.
It also aims to increase India’s hydrocarbon resource base from 1.6 billion tonnes of oil equivalent to 2.2 billion tonnes.
One deepwater exploration well costs around $125 million to $150 million.
Production from oil and gas fields normally falls by around 6% to 7% each year.
Source: Mint Primer.
Corporate action and earnings
Air India appoints a new chief executive
Air India appointed Ethiopian Airlines Group chief executive Tewolde Gebremariam as its new chief executive and managing director.
The appointment came four months after Campbell Wilson resigned.
Air India Group’s combined net loss more than doubled to ₹22,238 crore in FY26.
Combined revenue fell nearly 9% to ₹71,870 crore.
Source: Mint; Tata Sons annual report for FY26.
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel’s June-quarter revenue from operations rose 18.4% year-on-year to ₹58,539 crore.
Revenue was above the Bloomberg estimate of ₹56,896 crore.
Net profit increased 37.3% to ₹8,167 crore but was below the consensus estimate of ₹8,699 crore.
Average revenue per user rose 2.7% from the previous quarter to ₹264 per month from ₹257.
Airtel Africa contributed 30% of total revenue.
Source: Mint.
Airtel broadband
Airtel added 473,000 home broadband subscribers during the June quarter.
This was much lower than the 1.1 million subscribers added in the previous quarter.
Its home broadband customer base reached 14.7 million at the end of June.
Reliance Jio had 28.6 million fixed broadband users, including more than 14 million AirFiber subscribers.
Source: Mint.
Biocon
Biocon’s Q1FY27 consolidated net profit rose 348.4% year-on-year to ₹141 crore.
Revenue increased 10% to ₹4,336 crore.
EBITDA rose 10.6% to ₹847 crore. The EBITDA margin remained broadly stable at 19.5%.
Biosimilars revenue increased 16%, while generics revenue rose 21%.
| Company | Net profit growth |
|---|---|
| Biocon | +348.4% |
| Bharti Airtel | +37.3% |
| Berger Paints India | +29% |
| Marico | +27% |
Mint
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
Marico
Marico’s consolidated Q1FY27 revenue from operations rose 22.8% year-on-year to ₹3,957 crore.
Net profit increased 27% to ₹652 crore.
Domestic volume growth was 11%, the highest in 20 quarters.
Saffola edible-oil revenue rose 7%, although volumes declined by a high single-digit percentage.
Source: Mint Mark to Market.
NHPC
NHPC’s consolidated Q1FY27 EBITDA rose 31% year-on-year to ₹2,352 crore.
Revenue increased 18% to ₹3,808 crore.
Total electricity generation rose 8% to 9.5 billion units.
However, after excluding newly commissioned projects, generation fell by around 7%.
NHPC’s FY27 capital expenditure target is ₹15,000 crore, up from ₹13,700 crore in FY26.
Source: Mint Mark to Market.
Listed real estate companies
DLF’s Q1FY27 pre-sales fell 94% year-on-year to ₹657 crore because the company did not launch new projects.
Collections were ₹2,406 crore, while net cash stood at ₹15,200 crore.
Godrej Properties’ bookings rose 22% to ₹8,651 crore.
Lodha Developers recorded pre-sales of ₹4,629 crore, up 4% year-on-year.
The four largest listed developers aim to record combined sales bookings of ₹1.19 trillion during the year.
Source: Mint Mark to Market.
Berger Paints
Berger Paints India’s consolidated net profit attributable to owners rose 29% year-on-year to ₹404.34 crore.
Revenue from operations increased 12% to ₹3,583.75 crore.
Source: Mint News Wrap.
HT Media
HT Media reported consolidated net profit of ₹43.51 crore for the June quarter of FY27.
The company had reported a loss of ₹11.37 crore in the same quarter of the previous year.
Revenue from operations rose 11.05% to ₹437.30 crore.
Source: PTI via Mint.
Ola Electric
Ola Electric Mobility shares rose more than 7% after the company announced a partnership with Axis Energy.
The companies plan to deploy 20 GWh of battery energy storage systems.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
Manipal Health listing
Manipal Health Enterprises listed at ₹655 on the BSE.
This was an 11% premium to its IPO price of ₹590.
The stock extended its gains and closed at ₹667, 13% above the IPO price.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
LIC offer for sale
LIC’s offer for sale raised ₹31,552 crore when it closed on Tuesday.
This was the largest public share sale by an Indian company.
Public ownership in LIC increased to 10%.
Source: Mint News Wrap.
NIIF India-Japan Fund
The National Investment and Infrastructure Fund plans to increase the pace of investment through its India-Japan Fund.
The fund has commitments of $600 million and may invest the remaining amount over the next 18 to 24 months.
Around 40% of its commitments have already been invested.
The fund completed its final close in 2023.
The Government of India owns 49%, while the Japan Bank for International Cooperation owns 51%.
Source: Mint.
River Mobility funding
Electric-vehicle company River Mobility raised $120 million in an oversubscribed Series C funding round.
Around 85% of the funding was equity, while the remaining amount was venture debt.
The round was led by Elev8 Venture Partners and Claypond Capital.
River Mobility plans to expand its retail network from 75 outlets to more than 200 by March 2027.
Source: Mint.
InRisk Labs funding
InRisk Labs raised $27 million in a Series A funding round.
The round was co-led by Bessemer Venture Partners and Northpoint Capital.
Its subsidiary, EarthRe Insurance IFSC Ltd, also received a reinsurer licence from the International Financial Services Centres Authority.
Source: Mint.
Solar-cell imports from Ethiopia
India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy asked the finance and commerce ministries to examine a sharp rise in solar photovoltaic cell imports from Ethiopia.
Imports increased from zero to $202 million in 2025-26.
Solar cells accounted for 81% of India’s total imports from Ethiopia, which were worth $248.51 million.
India’s total solar-cell imports nearly doubled to $3.05 billion over the past two financial years.
Source: Mint.
TRAI rules for 5G network slicing
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India issued draft quality-of-service rules for 5G network slicing.
If a mobile cell operates above 80% of its capacity during the busiest hour on any five days in a month, the telecom operator must take timely action to increase capacity.
TRAI invited comments on the draft rules by 26 August.
Source: Mint.
Big Four partnerships with startups
The four largest consulting firms are partnering with technology startups and specialised service providers.
They are offering clients combined services covering agentic AI, technology upgrades and workplace transformation.
Source: Mint.
Natco Pharma patent challenge
Natco Pharma again approached the Delhi High Court against the Indian Patent Office’s decision to grant a patent for breast-cancer drug ribociclib.
The patent was granted to Novartis AG and Astex Therapeutics.
The case is scheduled for another hearing on 16 September.
Source: Mint.
Meta apology
Meta apologised for temporarily removing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Facebook post.
The company also apologised for failures involving child sexual abuse material, deepfakes and other content issues.
The apology came after Meta executives met Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw.
Source: PTI via Mint.
Celebrity brand values
The combined brand value of India’s 25 most valuable celebrities was estimated at $2 billion in 2025.
This was 3.7% lower than in the previous year.
| Celebrity | Brand value |
|---|---|
| Shah Rukh Khan | $177.9 million |
| Ranveer Singh | $162.9 million |
| Virat Kohli | $158.4 million |
Source: Mint; Kroll.
Upcoming events
Earnings calendar: 6 August 2026
- Life Insurance Corporation of India
- Aegis Logistics
- Trent
- Premier Energies
- Samvardhana Motherson International
- Emcure Pharmaceuticals
- Britannia Industries
- Blue Star
- Siemens Energy India
- Kirloskar Oil Engines
- Hero MotoCorp
- Sai Life Sciences
- Lupin
- Apollo Tyres
- Fortis Healthcare
- Firstsource Solutions
Zerodha Earnings Calendar.
Economic calendar
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 6 August 2026 | Central-bank policy rate, Mexico |
| 7 August 2026 | Real GDP, Philippines |
| 7 August 2026 | Monthly non-farm payrolls, United States |
| 7 August 2026 | Inflation, Mexico |
| 7 August 2026 | Foreign-exchange reserves |
Zerodha Economic Calendar. These are scheduled releases, not confirmed outcomes.
Global pulse
Global markets
Most major global markets ended higher.
The Nikkei 225 was the strongest index, rising 3.66%. The S&P 500 gained 1.77%, while the Dow Jones increased 1.71%.
| Index | Close | Change | Previous close |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,756.60 | +1.77% | 7,621.50 |
| Dow Jones | 54,106.88 | +1.71% | 53,199.41 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,871.50 | +0.03% | 29,863.50 |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,300.44 | +3.66% | 63,957.53 |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,878.42 | +1.47% | 3,822.28 |
| Hang Seng | 25,915.82 | +0.24% | 25,852.92 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,889.15 | +0.09% | 10,879.38 |
Zerodha Markets
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude rose to around $80 per barrel, ending a two-day decline.
The price increase followed an attack on a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility.
Oil remained well below its recent highs because hopes increased that the US, Iran and Oman could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Reports suggested the countries were close to a 60-day temporary agreement.
US President Donald Trump said a deal could be reached as early as this week.
Under the reported proposal:
- Ships entering the strait would use a northern route near Iran.
- Ships leaving would travel through Omani waters.
- No tolls or fees would be charged during the temporary arrangement.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Bloomberg via Mint.
Iranian oil blockade
Around 50 loaded Iranian vessels were waiting along Iran’s coastline in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman on Tuesday.
This was up from 45 vessels a week earlier and 36 when the US renewed its blockade on 14 July.
Iranian crude held in floating storage rose 14% to 135 million barrels during the month ending Tuesday.
| Date | Vessels |
|---|---|
| 14 July (blockade renewed) | 36 |
| A week earlier | 45 |
| Tuesday | Around 50 |
Source: Bloomberg via Mint; United Against Nuclear Iran; Vortexa.
Pressure on Iran’s economy
Oil flows through the Persian Gulf fell to around 36% of their pre-war level.
The International Monetary Fund expects Iran’s economy to contract 6% in 2026.
Annual inflation is expected to be around 69%.
Source: The Wall Street Journal via Mint.
SpaceX earnings
SpaceX reported its first quarterly results as a listed company.
Q2 revenue rose 92% year-on-year to $7.8 billion.
Growth came from the company’s Starlink satellite-internet business and its artificial-intelligence operations.
SpaceX also announced a partnership with Nvidia for data-centre chips.
Mint’s News in Numbers recorded a first-quarter net loss of $541 million in the company’s debut set of results.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Mint News Wrap.
US private payrolls
Private companies in the US added 44,000 jobs in July.
This was the smallest increase in six months and below the expected 70,000 jobs.
The June increase was revised down to 95,000.
Hiring was strongest in:
- Education and health services.
- Financial activities.
- Professional services.
Employment fell in:
- Trade, transportation and utilities.
- Leisure and hospitality.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
Disney and TikTok partnership
The Walt Disney Company and TikTok announced a partnership.
TikTok creators will be allowed to use Disney characters and scenes in short videos.
A selected collection of TikTok videos will also be shown on Disney+ through a new “Verts” tab.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
General Motors and SAIC
General Motors renewed its joint venture with SAIC Motor for another 20 years.
The agreement allows General Motors to continue using China as an export centre while competition from Chinese carmakers increases.
Source: Zerodha AfterMarket Report.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon
The Israeli military began targeted strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday.
Israel said the strikes were a response to a Hezbollah violation.
The action came one day after US-supported talks between Israel and Lebanon took place in Rome.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said a strike on Tibnin killed one person and injured 12.
Source: Reuters via Mint.
Global food-inflation warning
The chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the world may be close to another period of food inflation.
Wars in Iran and Ukraine, together with El Niño, could raise costs and reduce crop yields.
Source: Reuters via Mint.
OpenAI settlement
OpenAI and one of its subsidiaries will pay $3.2 million to settle US government claims.
The claims said the companies discriminated against US job applicants in favour of foreign visa holders.
Source: Mint News in Numbers.
Japanese yen at a 40-year low
The Japanese yen weakened beyond 160 per US dollar for the first time since 1986.
The average exchange rate in Tokyo moved from around 104 yen per dollar in January 2021 to around 163 yen in July 2026.
This represents a decline of more than 50% over five years.
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1% in June, its highest level since the 1990s. However, the yen continued to weaken.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose from 0.4% in early 2023 to 2.6% by Q2 2026.
It remained well below the US 10-year yield of 4.4%.
The US Federal Reserve’s policy rate remained between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Around 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from West Asia.
Japan’s trade deficit increased from ¥391.8 billion in May to ¥406.9 billion in June.
The Bank of Japan’s total assets reached 102.2% of GDP by December 2025.
| Central bank | Assets as a share of GDP |
|---|---|
| Bank of Japan | 102.2% |
| European Central Bank | 40.0% |
| People’s Bank of China | 34.4% |
| Bank of England | 26.0% |
| Reserve Bank of India | 24.5% |
| US Federal Reserve | 21.6% |
Japan’s general government debt was 214.5% of GDP in 2024, the highest among major advanced economies.
Source: Mint Plain Facts.
Management commentary
“Even this particular episode [West Asia conflict] of shock is being treated as an opportunity for us to further enhance our resilience. Our macroeconomic fundamental is very strong, growth is resilient, inflation, although headline is going up, the underlying inflation pressures are muted while we are aligning with core inflation,”
Sanjay Malhotra
Governor, Reserve Bank of India
On India’s economic fundamentals
“Certain sections in healthcare, especially the provider segment, still remain a little lumpy. Outside that, we should see a fairly decent growth in segments like scientific instruments, medical devices, pharma, and payer. For BFSI, we have a good set of traction in banking across the US and Europe as we have deals that should rectify into bigger revenues there,”
Sandeep Kalra
CEO and executive director, Persistent Systems
On sectors that could drive growth
“We are extremely confident of delivering high single-digit volume growth and aspire to achieve double-digit volume growth in at least one, if not more, of the remaining three quarters of the year,”
Saugata Gupta
Managing director and CEO, Marico
On the FY27 volume outlook
“On the fixed wireless access, there are two challenges: one is installing it in the wrong place actually leads to problems, so you will have poor experience,”
Gopal Vittal
Executive vice-chairman, Bharti Airtel
On the move back towards fibre broadband
Feature: The RBI’s August policy decision
Four holds and one unanimous vote
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee met from 3 to 5 August 2026.
It kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained its neutral stance.
The Standing Deposit Facility rate remained at 5%.
The Marginal Standing Facility rate and Bank Rate remained at 5.5%.
This was the RBI’s 62nd MPC meeting.
All six members voted to keep the rate unchanged and retain the neutral stance:
- Sanjay Malhotra
- Nagesh Kumar
- Saugata Bhattacharya
- Ram Singh
- Poonam Gupta
- Indranil Bhattacharyya
This was the fourth consecutive meeting in which the repo rate was left unchanged.
The RBI last reduced the repo rate in December 2025, when it cut the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%.
The policy stance was changed to neutral in February 2026.
Source: Business Standard; Upstox.
Growth forecast
The RBI expects India’s real GDP to grow 6.7% in FY27.
| Quarter | GDP growth forecast |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | 7.0% |
| Q2 FY27 | 6.4% |
| Q3 FY27 | 6.5% |
| Q4 FY27 | 6.8% |
| Full year | 6.7% |
Source: Business Standard.
Inflation forecast
The RBI expects CPI inflation of 5% in FY27.
| Period | CPI inflation forecast |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 | 4.7% |
| Q3 FY27 | 5.9% |
| Q4 FY27 | 5.5% |
| Full year | 5.0% |
Core inflation is projected at 4.3% for FY27.
The RBI expects headline inflation to reach a peak of 5.9% during the October to December quarter.
Higher food, fuel and other input prices are expected to keep inflation elevated in the near term.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation should rise further before reaching its peak in Q3 and then begin to come down.
Source: Business Standard; Upstox.
Uncertainty around the outlook
Malhotra said:
“The outlook, however, is hazy because of the uncertainties”
Sanjay Malhotra
Governor, Reserve Bank of India
The uncertainty mainly relates to global trade policy.
He said the RBI needs greater clarity on the level, direction and composition of inflation before taking further policy action.
He also said:
“Headline inflation is expected to rise further in the near term”
Sanjay Malhotra
Governor, Reserve Bank of India
The increase is expected to be driven mainly by food and fuel prices.
At the post-policy press conference, Malhotra described the RBI as “neither dovish nor hawkish”.
He said the central bank would continue to focus on headline inflation.
Source: Business Standard; Upstox; Forbes India.
Market reaction
Interest-rate-sensitive sectors were among the strongest performers after the policy announcement.
The Nifty Realty index rose nearly 3%, while the Nifty Auto index gained more than 1%.
Nifty Auto reached a record intraday high of 29,389.30, moving above its previous record of 29,179.10 set on 5 January 2026.
Upstox recorded an intraday high of 29,424.90 for Nifty Auto, a gain of 1.32%.
Nifty Realty reached an intraday high of 915.10. All 10 stocks in the index were trading higher.
Private-sector banking stocks were under pressure.
At 11:30 am:
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Sensex | 78,699.81, up 270.86 points |
| Nifty 50 | 24,605.35, up 7.65 points |
| BSE stocks advancing | 2,308 |
| BSE stocks declining | 1,518 |
| BSE stocks unchanged | 207 |
Analysts said a near-term rate increase looked less likely unless inflation rose sharply.
Source: Business Standard; Upstox.
Other RBI announcements
The RBI also announced measures outside interest-rate policy:
- Urban co-operative banks: The RBI will issue draft guidelines on restarting the licensing of urban co-operative banks after reviewing feedback on its discussion paper.
- Rural credit monitoring: The RBI will issue draft directions after reviewing the credit-monitoring system for rural co-operative banks. The current framework dates from 2008.
- Loan pricing: The RBI proposed standardising the rules used to calculate interest rates on loans across regulated financial institutions.
- Next MPC meeting: The next policy meeting will take place from 5 to 7 October 2026.
Source: Business Standard; Upstox; Forbes India.