DayStarter

Market snapshot

Equities: Monday close

The Nifty 50 opened almost flat at 24,581 after mixed global cues. It fell to an intraday low of around 24,510 within the first half-hour, then recovered above 24,600 by around 10:45 am.

Trading remained choppy through the first half. The index repeatedly tested the 24,600 to 24,610 range and briefly touched an intraday high of around 24,620 at 12:30 pm.

Selling returned after 2 pm and pulled the Nifty towards 24,540 to 24,550 during the final hour. A late recovery reduced some of the losses, and the index closed almost flat at 24,583.80.

Sector performance

Realty was the strongest sector, rising 1.35%. Consumer Durables gained 0.38%, while Media, Metal and IT also moved higher.

PSU Bank was the weakest sector, falling 1.67%. Pharma, FMCG, Bank and Auto also declined slightly.

F&O winners and losers

POWERINDIA was the strongest F&O stock, rising 10.58%. Paytm gained 9.88%.

PFC was the biggest loser, falling 8.30%. Bharat Forge declined 7.60%, while REC fell 6.34%.

Commodities

All seven MCX commodity futures in the report ended higher.

Natural gas was the strongest, rising 3.36%. Crude oil gained 1.21%, while aluminium rose 1.13%.

Currency and bond yields

USDINR rose slightly to 95.32.

The US 10-year bond yield fell to 4.66, while India’s 10-year bond yield declined slightly to 6.76.

Institutional flows

Foreign institutional investors bought Indian equities worth a net ₹1,975 crore on 10 August.

Domestic institutional investors were net sellers of ₹1,290 crore.

Across the five sessions shown, FIIs were net buyers of ₹3,940 crore and DIIs were net buyers of ₹4,907 crore.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report; NSE

Macro view

Mining levies

The Centre introduced the Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation Amendment Bill, 2026, in the Lok Sabha.

The Bill proposes a new Section 9D in the 1957 law.

Under the proposal, state governments would not be allowed to impose a tax, cess or other levy on mineral rights or mineral-bearing land based on the quantity or value of minerals, royalty, or similar measures, except under conditions prescribed by the Centre.

The Bill says an excessive fiscal burden can make mining commercially unviable, discourage extraction and lead to mine closures.

Any levy already paid to or recovered by a state before the amendment takes effect will not have to be refunded.

The proposal comes more than two years after the Supreme Court ruled in Mineral Area Development Authority vs Steel Authority of India that states have the power to tax mines and mineral-bearing land. The court also ruled that royalty paid to the Centre on minerals is not a tax.

UPI remains free

Parliament passed the Taxation and Other Laws Amendment Bill.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the legislation does not impose a tax on UPI.

The Bill removes the linkage between the Payment and Settlement Systems Act and the Income Tax Act.

It also replaces the 5 June ordinance that provided income-tax exemptions on interest income and capital gains earned by foreign portfolio investors from government-security investments.

Tribunal reforms

The Lok Sabha passed the Tribunals Reforms Bill, 2026.

The Bill proposes a National Tribunals Commission based in New Delhi.

The commission would be headed by a former Supreme Court judge or a former chief justice of a high court. It would also have two judicial members and two technical members.

The National Company Law Tribunal would remain outside the commission’s direct control.

The commission would maintain a National Tribunals Data Grid covering 16 tribunals and appellate tribunals.

Bank records as legal evidence

The Rajya Sabha passed the Bankers’ Books Evidence Bill, 2026.

The Bill recognises electronic and digital bank records as admissible legal evidence.

It replaces the Bankers’ Books Evidence Act, 1891.

RBI loan-recovery rules

The RBI issued its final loan-recovery guidelines on 6 August.

The rules will take effect in January 2027, three months later than originally planned.

Banks must ensure that recovery agents:

• Hold a debt-recovery certificate from the Indian Institute of Banking and Finance.
• Have their backgrounds checked before appointment.
• Continue to undergo periodic background checks after appointment.

Banks must also have a policy for taking possession of security from borrowers who default. The policy must include compensation for borrower losses caused by actions that violate the RBI guidelines.

SEBI proposal for debt securities

SEBI proposed raising the maximum number of ISINs that can mature during one financial year for privately placed debt securities.

The limit would rise from 14 to 17.

The proposed structure allows:

• Up to 12 ISINs for plain-vanilla debt, up from nine.
• Another five for structured, market-linked, floating-rate, zero-coupon and debt-capital instruments.

Comments are open until 31 August.

Telecom call numbering

TRAI directed entities outside the BFSI and government sectors to use a separate 1601-series number for transactional and service calls.

The 1601 series cannot be used for promotional calls.

Bank credit growth

Growth in non-food bank credit moved into double digits in September 2025.

For the fortnight ending 15 July 2026, bank credit growth crossed 17%, the fastest pace in two years.

Credit growth has been broad-based.

Agriculture, industry, services excluding NBFCs, and retail have recently recorded year-on-year loan growth of around 12% to 15%. Credit to NBFCs has been growing faster, at around 20% to 30%.

A sustained period when all major sectors grew at 14% or more has occurred only once before, between October 2010 and August 2011.

Credit growth versus nominal GDP

Bank credit is growing much faster than nominal GDP.

Nominal GDP growth is running at around 9% to 10%, while bank credit has grown above 17%.

This points to strong underlying demand for borrowing.

Capital expenditure and industrial credit

Bank lending to large industrial companies returned to double-digit growth during the first two months of FY27.

Fresh investment announcements increased 31.9% to ₹58 trillion in 2025-26. Mega projects worth ₹1,000 crore or more accounted for 82% of the total.

Steel, power, cement, real estate, oil and gas, and textiles accounted for 69% of projects in Q1FY27.

Private-sector ownership of new projects increased from 61.2% in 2024-25 to 70.3% in 2025-26 and 71.7% in Q1FY27.

Retail credit

Retail lending is growing around 14% to 16%.

This is slower than the growth of more than 20% recorded in 2022 and 2023.

Gold loans accounted for nearly one-third of incremental personal loans in May 2026.

Government asset sales

The Centre has raised ₹59,082.95 crore from asset sales in FY27.

This is 73.85% of the full-year target of ₹80,000 crore.

Offer-for-sale transactions in public-sector companies generated ₹51,787 crore, almost 90% of the total. Asset monetisation contributed ₹6,366.93 crore.

The largest transaction was the LIC stake sale in early August. The Centre raised ₹31,515 crore by selling a 6.5% stake, reducing its holding in LIC to 90%.

Dividends from public-sector companies added ₹2,553.43 crore. Total miscellaneous receipts reached ₹61,636.38 crore.

E-way bills

India generated 139.8 million e-way bills in July.

This was 5.98% higher than a year earlier and the second-highest monthly level on record.

July was also the fourth consecutive month with more than 130 million e-way bills. Generation increased 2.21% from 136.8 million in June.

Year-on-year growth had been 14.5% in June and 10.9% in May.

Urban unemployment

The urban unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above was 6.7% during April to June.

This was slightly higher than 6.6% during January to March.

Green Energy Corridor III

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy plans to seek Union Cabinet approval for the third phase of the Green Energy Corridor.

The project is expected to cost more than ₹50,000 crore.

It will strengthen intra-state electricity transmission in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

The proposal has already been cleared by the Finance Ministry’s Expenditure Finance Committee.

Renewable-energy curtailment

India has recorded electricity curtailment equal to 18% of average monthly solar generation of 13 terawatt hours.

Curtailment means available renewable electricity cannot be used or transmitted, which can lead to compensation payments.

The first phase of the Green Energy Corridor covered transmission for 24 GW of renewable capacity. The second phase covers around 20 GW and is expected to be completed by the end of FY27. The two phases involve investment of around ₹10,000 crore and ₹12,000 crore respectively.

India’s non-fossil generation capacity has reached 300 GW. The government’s 2030 target is 500 GW.

India needs another 61,411 circuit kilometres of inter-state transmission capacity by FY30, compared with existing capacity of 508,535 circuit kilometres. Only around 80% of annual transmission targets have been completed over the past five years.

A May report by Ember found that transmission constraints caused almost two-thirds of renewable-energy curtailment, which reached 300 GWh during Q1 2026.

BSNL investment plan

The Department of Telecommunications told Parliament that BSNL has a ₹77,000 crore capital expenditure plan over five years.

The programme is expected to help BSNL reach operating breakeven by FY29. It also aims to provide 98% nationwide coverage.

Possible restrictions on sugarcane ethanol

India is considering limiting how much sugarcane can be used to produce ethanol during the season starting in October.

The aim is to increase sugar production and reduce pressure on record sugar prices.

Lower rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka has raised concern about next year’s sugar output.

Kharif sowing

Farmers planted kharif crops across 96.8 million hectares as of 7 August.

This was 1.8 million hectares below the 98.6 million hectares planted a year earlier. Normal kharif acreage is 110.4 million hectares.

The year-on-year shortfall narrowed from 2.9% on 31 July to 1.9% on 7 August.

The rainfall deficit narrowed from more than 35% at the end of June to 13% at the end of July.

Securities Appellate Tribunal cases

Pending cases before the Securities Appellate Tribunal rose to 1,066 in FY26.

This was 11% higher than a year earlier and 122.5% higher than the 479 cases pending in FY20.

Fresh appeals fell to 429 from 533 in FY25. Appeals dismissed declined to 135, less than half the number dismissed during FY25.

Nifty 50 index change

BSE will replace Wipro in the Nifty 50 from 30 September.

BSE qualified because its six-month average free-float market capitalisation was at least 1.5 times that of the smallest existing constituent.

Data-centre investment

Data centres became the second-most preferred institutional real estate asset class in India during April to June 2026.

They accounted for nearly 40% of total institutional real estate investment. Office space remained the largest category.

Mint; Mint Primer; Mint Plain Facts; Reserve Bank of India

Corporate action and earnings

State Bank of India

SBI reported Q1FY27 standalone net profit of ₹21,121 crore, up 10% year-on-year.

Net interest income rose more than 14% to ₹46,992 crore. Operating profit increased almost 10% to ₹33,529 crore.

Domestic net interest margin improved by 7 basis points to 3.0%.

Advances increased 19% year-on-year to ₹50 trillion.

Gold loans now account for 2.5% of SBI’s loan book, up from 1.5% a year earlier.

Fresh slippages rose to ₹7,046 crore from ₹5,521 crore in Q4FY26, but remained below ₹7,945 crore a year earlier. Gross NPA fell to 1.47%, while net NPA declined to 0.38%. Provision coverage remained around 74%.

The overall credit-deposit ratio rose to 83%. The domestic credit-deposit ratio was lower at 74%.

Management expects to raise around $10 billion of FCNR(B) deposits after raising $6 billion in Q1. FY27 credit-growth guidance remains 14% to 15%.

Bharat Forge

Bharat Forge reported a Q1FY27 consolidated net loss of ₹90 crore. The company had reported a profit of ₹284 crore a year earlier.

Exceptional restructuring costs at its German subsidiary affected profitability.

Revenue grew 19% year-on-year. Segment growth included defence revenue up 88%, forgings up 8% and other businesses up 125%.

Info Edge

Info Edge’s Q1FY27 net profit fell 20.4% from the previous quarter to ₹246 crore. The result included a one-time loss of ₹72 crore.

Revenue rose 2.4% sequentially to ₹824 crore. Naukri.com revenue increased 5% to ₹612 crore. 99acres.com revenue fell 10% to ₹130 crore.

Hindustan Copper

Hindustan Copper’s Q1FY27 consolidated net profit rose 162.4% year-on-year to ₹352 crore.

Revenue increased 81.3% to ₹937 crore from ₹516 crore.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility

Amara Raja’s Q1FY27 consolidated net profit rose 16% year-on-year to ₹191 crore.

Revenue from operations increased 23.9% to ₹4,215 crore from ₹3,401 crore.

Vodafone Idea

Vodafone Idea’s Q1FY27 net loss narrowed to ₹3,754 crore from ₹6,608 crore a year earlier. The result was better than Bloomberg’s estimate of a ₹5,391 crore loss.

Revenue from operations rose 6% to ₹11,689 crore. EBITDA increased 9.1% to ₹5,034 crore.

The customer base increased to 193.1 million from 192.8 million in the previous quarter. This was Vodafone Idea’s first quarterly net subscriber addition since Vodafone India and Idea Cellular merged in August 2018. However, subscribers were still 4.6 million lower than the 197.7 million recorded a year earlier.

June-quarter capital expenditure was ₹1,930 crore, down from ₹2,294 crore in the previous quarter.

Earnings included a one-time gain of ₹1,816 crore from a fair-value adjustment of equity shares to be settled with a promoter entity. This was partly offset by a ₹205 crore charge related to a TDSAT matter.

The government reduced AGR dues by ₹23,600 crore in April, leaving dues of ₹64,046 crore. Vodafone Idea has secured ₹6,400 crore of funding and is seeking ₹35,000 crore of bank debt.

Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp’s revenue rose 36% year-on-year to around ₹13,000 crore. Volumes increased 23% to 1.68 million units.

Standalone gross margin fell to 28.5%. This was 475 basis points lower than a year earlier and 297 basis points lower than the previous quarter.

EBITDA margin fell 114 basis points year-on-year to 13.3%. However, EBITDA margin for the core internal-combustion-engine portfolio improved 90 basis points sequentially to 15.9%.

Hero held an 85.8% market share in the 100cc category. Its share of the Deluxe 125cc segment increased to 17.8% from 12.8% a year earlier.

VIDA’s EV market share rose to 10.9%, with EV volumes up 151%. Management plans to expand EV production capacity from 30,000 units per month to 45,000 units per month by the end of FY27.

AstraZeneca Pharma India

AstraZeneca Pharma India’s June-quarter profit after tax fell 32% to ₹37.93 crore from ₹55.83 crore a year earlier.

Revenue from operations increased to ₹682.79 crore from ₹526.31 crore. Total expenses rose to ₹641.03 crore from ₹462.49 crore.

Muthoot Microfin

Rural borrowers accounted for more than 97% of Muthoot Microfin’s ₹14,457 crore of assets under management in Q1.

Collection efficiency improved to 97.97% from 93% a year earlier. Gross NPAs fell to 3.7% from 4.85%. Credit costs declined to 2.6% from 4.33%. Cost of funds fell 14 basis points sequentially to 10.13%.

BSNL

BSNL’s FY26 loss widened to ₹4,738 crore from ₹2,247 crore a year earlier.

Depreciation and amortisation expenses increased to ₹10,350 crore from ₹6,283 crore.

Revenue from operations rose 1.7% to ₹21,199 crore. This was well below the ₹28,476 crore target set under BSNL’s memorandum of understanding with the Department of Telecommunications.

Porter

Logistics company Porter’s FY26 revenue rose 54% to ₹6,698 crore from ₹4,341.6 crore.

Net profit increased more than four times to ₹229 crore from ₹55.3 crore.

Air India

Air India’s revenue fell to ₹71,870 crore in the year ended March 2026 from ₹78,640 crore a year earlier.

The airline reported a record loss of around ₹22,000 crore, or $2.3 billion, for the year ended 31 March 2026.

CESC buys ReNew solar assets

CESC will acquire solar assets in two Indian states from ReNew Solar Power.

The enterprise value of the transaction is ₹4,860 crore, or around $509 million. CESC’s renewable-energy subsidiary Purvah Green Power will pay ₹1,580 crore in cash.

The assets add 1.4 GW-peak of solar capacity. More than 90% of expected electricity output is covered by long-term power-purchase agreements with Solar Energy Corporation of India.

The transaction is expected to close by 31 October.

Lightstorm raises ₹2,500 crore

Lightstorm Telecom Connectivity raised a ₹2,500 crore, approximately $260 million, long-term debt facility from IndusInd Bank.

The company will use the money to build network infrastructure across southern India and expand its I-2SEA subsea cable system.

The facility also allows Lightstorm to incorporate an existing, largely unused ₹700 crore credit line from the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund.

Lightstorm operates more than 30,000 km of terrestrial fibre, 21,000 km of subsea fibre and connections to more than 100 data centres globally.

Operating income rose 78% year-on-year to ₹589 crore during the first nine months of FY26. PBILDT margin increased to around 56.8% from 37.8% in FY25.

Baazar Retail stake sale

Siguler Guff and other Baazar Retail investors are considering selling their stakes.

The transaction could value the company at ₹4,000 crore to ₹5,000 crore. O3 Capital is advising on the process.

Baazar Retail operates the Baazar Kolkata chain. The company has more than 250 stores across West Bengal and 10 other states.

FY25 revenue was ₹1,324.83 crore, up from ₹1,182.38 crore. Its loss widened to ₹127.48 crore from ₹57.52 crore in FY24.

Adani Infra

Adani Infra India reported FY26 profit of ₹7,127 crore, around twice the previous year’s level.

Revenue from operations was ₹11,301 crore. Free cash flow was ₹6,666 crore.

Over the previous seven months, the company spent ₹11,561 crore buying stakes in four listed Adani Group companies.

Raymond Realty

Raymond Realty plans to launch two redevelopment projects in Mumbai’s Mahim area during FY27.

The projects have combined gross development value of ₹4,500 crore.

The company recently signed redevelopment projects in Parel, with GDV of ₹8,500 crore, and Kandivali, with GDV of ₹3,000 crore.

April-to-June sales bookings rose 129% to ₹700 crore from ₹306 crore.

Hindustan Copper and Codelco

Hindustan Copper plans to sell copper concentrate from mines it is acquiring from Chilean miner Codelco to Hindalco and Adani.

Hindustan Copper is also discussing a joint venture with Codelco to mine and sell copper.

Norton Motorcycles

Nevijo Mance, one of two executives appointed to lead Norton’s turnaround, resigned from the company’s board in early April.

No replacement director had been appointed according to filings submitted to the UK registrar in July.

TVS, which owns Norton, is targeting 200 dealer touchpoints globally for the 2026 season.

TCS employee-data alert

Tata Consultancy Services said it had received alerts about the possible exposure of some employee-related information.

The company said there was no indication that customer data or customer systems had been affected. The information involved appears to be more than four years old.

Diageo bottles seized

Indian inspectors seized around 18,000 boxes of Diageo liquor bottles.

The bottles allegedly did not carry markings showing they were made using safe recycled plastic. Diageo India confirmed the regulatory action.

Dividend payouts

BSE 500 companies paid aggregate dividends of ₹5.13 trillion in FY26.

This was 8.2% higher than a year earlier, but growth slowed from 11.9% in FY25.

The dividend payout ratio fell to 27.6% from 30.4%. This was the lowest payout ratio in 12 years.

Together, these six companies accounted for around 26% of the total.

Share buybacks

As of 24 July, companies had announced buybacks worth ₹24,950.69 crore.

This was the highest level since 2023. It had already exceeded the 14 buybacks worth ₹19,711.71 crore announced during all of 2025.

Festive food costs

Bikaji Foods’ packaged-sweets revenue rose 4.4% to ₹42.6 crore in the June quarter. Packaged sweets represented 6.3% of its product mix, up from 5.8% a year earlier.

Sweet Bengal has seen input costs rise 25% to 30%, mainly because of higher milk prices. The company plans to increase selling prices by only 1% to 2%.

Farm-gate prices across dairy cooperatives have increased by around ₹15 to ₹20 per kilogram of fat.

Indian box office

Indian cinema attendance increased 5% in the first half of 2026 to 378 million. Attendance was 362 million a year earlier.

The increase ended three consecutive years of decline. However, footfall remained below the 400 million recorded during the first half of 2022.

Flavoured spirits case

The Bombay High Court asked the Centre to respond by 19 August to a petition filed by alcoholic-beverage companies.

The companies are challenging FSSAI’s ban on some rum and whisky variants. The regulator objected to added flavouring in products sold as standardised spirits.

News in numbers

• 2,359: Hospitals removed from the Ayushman Bharat panel under scheme guidelines.
• $665 million: Q2 profit reported by ADNOC Gas, down 52% year-on-year because sales were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 32%: Share of organisations that expect AI to lead to major re-skilling and job transformation rather than large net job cuts.
• 132 kg: Rotten food, fungus-infected meat and expired curd seized during inspections of 26 three-star and five-star hotels in Bengaluru.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report; howindialives.com

Upcoming events

Economic calendar

Earnings calendar: 13 August 2026

Corporate actions: Ex-date 11 August 2026

Corporate actions: Ex-date 12 August 2026

Global pulse

Global markets

Most major global markets ended higher.

The Nikkei 225 rose 2.08%, while the Hang Seng gained 1.05%. The FTSE 100 was the only index in the table to decline.

Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude rose above $85 per barrel. This was its fourth consecutive session of gains.

Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continued to create concern about oil supplies. Iran and Oman had not finalised an agreement to reopen the waterway.

Conflicting statements from Tehran and Washington also created uncertainty about when or whether an agreement would be reached.

Gold and silver

Gold remained above $4,340 per ounce, near a two-month high. Silver rose above $63.50 per ounce, its highest level in seven weeks.

Markets reduced expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate increases after signs of weakness in the US labour market. July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged in September.

US-Iran negotiations

US President Donald Trump said he was prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to increase rather than launch another round of military attacks.

He said the US was only “semi-negotiating” with Iran about the Strait of Hormuz. The US naval blockade is adding to Iran’s financial pressure.

Iran published a list of conditions for fully reopening the strait. The demands include ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, removing US forces from around Iran, removing sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets and compensation for damage from the war.

Mohsen Rezaee, military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Before the war began on 28 February, around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ukraine attacks Russian oil hub

Ukraine attacked the petroleum centre of Nizhnekamsk in Russia’s Tatarstan region. The attack killed 13 people and injured 75. It was one of the deadliest attacks in the four-year war.

Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian oil facilities with long-range drones. These attacks have caused fuel shortages and reduced Russian refining capacity.

SpaceX

SpaceX shares rose 16% on Friday. The two-day gain reached around 23%.

The stock moved close to its $135 IPO price for the first time since falling below it the previous month. The two-day rally added more than $327 billion to the company’s market value.

Sony and TSMC

Sony Group and TSMC reportedly plan to invest around ¥1 trillion, or $6.3 billion, to manufacture next-generation chips used in image sensors.

The proposed joint venture would be 60% owned by Sony and 40% owned by TSMC. Commercial production could begin as early as 2029 in Kumamoto, Japan.

Westpac

Westpac Banking Corporation reported a 20% fall in mortgage applications. The bank expects investor housing-credit growth to halve next year.

Changes to Australia’s property-tax concessions are reducing housing demand. Auction clearance rates are at six-year lows. National home prices have fallen around 2% during the past four months.

Pressure in private credit

Quarterly reports from funds managed by Ares Management, Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital and Golub Capital showed that loan defaults reached their highest level since at least 2021.

Defaulted loans represented 2.8% of Blue Owl’s fund in Q2. Non-performing loans at the other three funds also reached five-year highs.

Private-credit funds often produced annual returns of 10% or more in earlier years. Even stronger funds are now struggling to generate 7%. A weaker KKR fund lost 6.55% during the 12 months through June. This was still an improvement from its 9.17% loss during the previous comparable period.

Borrower watchlists at Ares, Golub and KKR are at their highest levels since 2022-23, when interest rates were rising.

OpenAI

OpenAI paused some internal work on an upcoming AI model to introduce stronger safeguards. The company found that the model had become significantly better at cybersecurity tasks.

OpenAI said it “cannot rule out” that the unreleased Astra model could reach its critical cybersecurity threshold.

Meta

Meta released a new open-weight AI model called Muse Glimmer. The model is smaller than leading AI models from competitors.

It is designed to run agentic tasks on a Mac or PC using a single graphics card. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also called for lower US barriers to open-source AI.

GameStop and eBay

GameStop is considering withdrawing its $56 billion offer for eBay. It may instead propose a partnership or joint venture.

The arrangement could allow eBay to use GameStop’s roughly 1,600 US retail stores.

Liverpool stake sale

A consortium including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is close to a deal to acquire around one-third of Premier League football club Liverpool.

Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin is also part of the investor group.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Bloomberg via Mint; AP via Mint; Reuters via Mint; The Wall Street Journal via Mint

Management commentary

Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Mint

Feature: Private credit

Definition and growth

The feature is based entirely on BlackRock’s January 2026 report, “Private Credit: A primer on a broadening asset class”, written by Dominique Bly, Macro Credit Research Strategist.

BlackRock defines private credit broadly as credit that is originated, structured and held by a lender.

The asset class has expanded well beyond its older focus on loans to middle-market companies. It now includes areas such as private asset-backed finance and private investment-grade corporate credit.

Size of the market

Private credit assets have more than doubled since 2018 and quadrupled since 2014.

BlackRock’s $4.5 trillion forecast implies annual growth of around 13% over the next five years. Average annual growth from 2020 to 2024 was 16%.

North America represented 71% of global private-credit assets as of March 2025. Direct lending is the largest strategy and accounts for around 54% of global AUM. This figure excludes assets held by business development companies, which are captured separately in the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index.

BlackRock argues that private credit has grown significantly but is not unusually large when compared with other major North American credit and private-market categories.

How private credit developed

Middle-market lending existed long before private credit became a separate asset class.

Historically, banks provided these loans through relationship lending using their own balance sheets and deposits.

After the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis, banks changed how they used their balance sheets. Private credit then grew as a separate market funded increasingly by third-party institutional capital.

Four structural growth drivers

BlackRock identifies four reasons for the growth of private credit.

Larger borrowers and larger loans

Early private-credit deals were usually smaller and often involved businesses without strong positive EBITDA.

As funds became larger, managers became able to write bigger cheques while still spreading risk across portfolios. Loans of $1 billion or more, called jumbo loans in the report, have become more common. Average jumbo-loan sizes have also increased.

Among sponsor-backed US transactions, direct lending has recently financed more deals by number than the broadly syndicated loan market. However, the syndicated market still handles more total volume because its borrowers and transactions are generally larger.

Borrowers move between public and private markets

Refinancing between public and private credit has become more common. A refinancing from one market into the other is described as a takeout.

Activity was fairly balanced during 2024 and the first nine months of 2025.

Some borrowers run dual-track processes. This means they test investor demand in both public and private credit markets at the same time and choose the option offering better terms. BlackRock expects flows between the two markets to vary from year to year.

European private credit

European private-credit deals are becoming larger.

Deals worth €99 million or less fell from 61% of direct-lending transactions in 2020 to 10% during the first nine months of 2025. Deals of €1 billion or more increased from 0% in 2020 to 12% during the first nine months of 2025.

European jumbo-loan volume reached €25 billion in 2025 to date, up from €5 billion in 2021.

However, syndicated loans still dominate European sponsor-backed activity by both deal count and volume. BlackRock says this reflects Europe’s less mature private-credit market and leaves room for further growth.

Private credit moves towards investment-grade borrowers

The US investment-grade corporate market has gradually moved towards lower ratings and higher leverage. BBB-rated issuance has increased as a share of the total.

BlackRock says this reflects companies trying to find a more efficient balance between borrowing costs and leverage while staying safely within investment-grade ratings.

Some BBB-rated companies now have very large debt structures. At the end of 2025, three companies in the Bloomberg USD BBB Corporate Index had at least $80 billion of eligible debt outstanding, five had between $50 billion and $80 billion, and 403 had less than $5 billion.

Large public debt structures can make additional borrowing more difficult and increase the attraction of private financing.

Private asset-backed finance

Private asset-backed finance, or private ABF, means lending secured by pools of assets. Cash generated by those assets is used to repay the debt. These structures often amortise over time.

This differs from a normal corporate loan, where repayment depends mainly on one company’s ability and willingness to make regular interest payments and repay a large amount at maturity.

Private ABF includes lending against consumer debt, physical assets, commercial financing and intellectual property.

The US addressable market is estimated at $5.5 trillion. Of this, banks finance 54%, non-bank financing represents 34% and public securitisation accounts for 12%.

Around $300 billion of the non-bank portion is estimated to be financed through private credit. That equals an overall market share of around 5%.

Why borrowers use private credit

BlackRock lists several advantages for borrowers.

Private loans can be negotiated and underwritten directly, which can reduce the need for long investor roadshows and rating-agency reviews. Companies can also keep sensitive business information out of public markets.

Private credit can provide more certainty during volatile markets because a deal is negotiated with one lender or a small lender group and does not depend on a broad syndication process.

Public markets can become much less available to riskier borrowers during stressed periods. For example, lower-rated US leveraged loans, rated B- or below, represented around 12% of total issuance from Q4 2022 through Q4 2023. They had represented 32% of quarterly issuance in 2021. This shift followed the Federal Reserve’s 525-basis-point increase in rates over 16 months beginning in March 2022.

Who invests in private credit

Private credit has a largely buy-and-hold institutional investor base.

Why investors allocate to private credit

A June 2025 Preqin survey found that investors most often cited reliable income at 60%, diversification at 56%, high risk-adjusted returns at 44% and lower portfolio volatility at 34%.

Insurance-company demand

BlackRock identifies four reasons insurers are increasing private-credit allocations.

First, long-term private loans can be matched with long-term insurance liabilities. Second, insurers seek higher yields while working within risk-based capital rules. Third, private credit can add diversification and generally shows less reported price volatility because loans are not traded or marked to market every day. Fourth, ageing populations and higher interest rates have increased interest in products such as annuities, creating more demand for long-duration assets.

Retail participation

Some types of business development companies have made private credit easier for retail investors to access. They can offer lower minimum investments and simpler tax reporting.

However, retail inflows are still small compared with institutional investment.

Investors favour experienced managers

First-time private-credit funds have received an average of only 4.4% of annual capital raised since 2022. This is well below the 11.2% average from 2019 to 2021.

Managers raising their fourth fund or later have captured around 84% of capital raised since 2022. From 2019 to 2021, their share averaged 71%.

In a June 2025 Preqin survey of more than 450 institutional investors, 75% said manager experience and track record were important in the current environment.

Where investors see opportunity

Private credit had one of the highest shares of investors expecting to increase allocations over both the next 12 months and the longer term.

Among established strategies, investors saw the most opportunity in direct lending at 60%, special situations at 42% and distressed debt at 36%.

Among newer strategies, asset-backed lending was cited by 60% and private-credit secondaries by 42%.

Public debt markets have moved towards larger borrowers

The US high-yield bond and leveraged-loan markets each now total around $1.5 trillion. As these markets have grown, average transaction sizes have also increased.

Since 2020, the average new issue in both markets has exceeded $700 million. The average US high-yield deal was above $800 million in 2025. These amounts can be too large for many middle-market companies.

Issuing too little debt can also create problems. A small public bond or loan can be illiquid and held by too few investors. This can make future refinancing harder and increase the chance that distressed investors become involved if the borrower develops financial problems.

European public debt markets

Europe’s public debt markets are smaller than the US markets.

At the end of 2025, the Bloomberg Pan Euro High Yield Corporate Index was worth €398 billion, the Morningstar EUR Leveraged Loan Index exceeded €330 billion, and the comparable US high-yield and leveraged-loan markets were each around $1.5 trillion.

The average European high-yield deal was €421 million in 2025. The average new euro leveraged loan exceeded €800 million.

BlackRock links Europe’s smaller public markets partly to its greater dependence on banks. It also notes European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s December 2025 comments on building a Capital Markets Union.

Companies are staying private longer

There are more than 45,000 private companies with revenue above $100 million across the US, European Union and UK. This is far more than the number of publicly listed companies.

The number of US listed companies was broadly flat between the early 2000s and 2020. There was a temporary increase in IPO activity during 2021, but the number has since moved lower again.

BlackRock says a larger private-company universe increases the addressable market for private credit.

Ageing private-equity portfolios

Private-equity transaction activity has been relatively weak during the past few years. This has increased both the number of PE-backed companies and the average age of investments. Higher financing costs have contributed because they can lower equity valuations and make transactions more expensive to finance.

More recent data shows signs of recovery. US private-equity exit counts rose 22% from the previous quarter in Q3 2025.

In Europe, exit values rose 80% quarter-on-quarter and 88% year-on-year, Q3 2025 recorded the highest quarterly exit value since Q3 2023, and exit counts were the strongest since 2020.

A sustained recovery in PE transactions could help private credit in two ways. Existing private loans are often repaid when companies are sold. Private lenders can then potentially finance the same borrower again after the transaction, particularly when the buyer is another financial sponsor.

Changes in bank lending

US bank lending to the domestic private non-financial sector fell from 58.7% of GDP in Q4 2008 to 44.0% in Q2 2025. This is a decline of around 14 percentage points.

BlackRock links the change to regulatory and capital requirements introduced after the global financial crisis.

The US depends less on banks for private-sector funding than the euro area and UK. This reflects both the larger private-credit market and deeper US public debt markets. North America accounts for 71% of global private-credit assets.

Private credit during periods of bank stress

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that banks typically tighten lending standards and raise borrowing costs during periods of market stress.

Examples include the early 2000s recession, the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, the early 2020 pandemic and the US regional banking disruption in March 2023.

BlackRock views private credit as positive for financial stability because it can provide funding to creditworthy companies when traditional bank credit becomes harder to obtain.

Private-credit performance

BlackRock uses the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index to study US direct-lending returns. The index measures unlevered returns before fees. As of Q3 2025, it included more than 20,000 US loan segments representing around $514 billion of assets.

Private credit has historically offered higher yields than public credit. BlackRock says this reflects both the certainty that private lenders can provide to borrowers and an illiquidity premium for holding loans over long periods.

Credit losses

Realised losses in private credit have historically been modest compared with the interest income earned. Losses were unusually low in 2021 and 2022. They have since started to normalise but remained contained.

Trailing 12-month realised losses in the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index were 61 basis points as of Q3 2025. These losses include payment defaults and restructurings.

BlackRock says realised loss rates are more useful than simple default rates when comparing public and private credit. Private loans often have stronger covenants. A covenant breach can allow lenders to address problems before the borrower actually misses a payment.

Private and public credit during stress

During major periods of financial-market stress, realised losses in private credit were either similar to or lower than BlackRock’s estimates of loss given default in US high-yield bonds and leveraged loans.

BlackRock links this resilience to detailed due diligence and underwriting, senior-secured positions and covenant protections, ongoing monitoring, and long-term lender relationships that allow problems to be addressed collaboratively.

Historical returns

Across the 20 calendar years from 2005 to 2024, the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index outperformed both the Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Bond Index and Morningstar/LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index in 14 years.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The index figures do not include management fees, transaction costs or expenses.

Interest-rate sensitivity

US high-yield bonds are mainly fixed-rate investments. Their prices therefore move more when market interest rates change.

Private direct lending and leveraged loans are mainly floating-rate. They would normally perform better relative to fixed-rate bonds during a rising-rate environment. A sharp decline in interest rates would instead help the total returns of fixed-rate high-yield bonds.

Performance differs across managers

Average private-credit returns can hide large differences between managers and funds.

During Q3 2020, 45% of business development companies tracked in the Cliffwater data had negative return on equity. Returns moved sharply higher during the following year as valuations recovered from pandemic-related write-downs.

A Cliffwater analysis found that many weaker performers in 2025 had small portfolios. Managers with more than 200 borrowers had average ROE of 9.5%. Managers with fewer than 100 credits had average ROE of 6.1%. BlackRock says this shows the importance of manager selection.

Private-credit fundamentals

BlackRock uses data from Lincoln International to assess underlying borrower fundamentals. Lincoln performs quarterly valuations for more than 6,500 portfolio companies. Its database is estimated to cover around 30% of US private-equity-backed companies.

Covenant defaults

A private-credit default does not always mean the borrower missed a payment or that the lender lost money. BlackRock therefore monitors covenant defaults as an indicator of financial pressure.

Covenant-default rates fell slightly in both the US and Europe during Q3 2025. The improvement may reflect better borrower finances and lenders agreeing to amendments before companies formally default.

The US size-weighted covenant-default rate has averaged 3.4% over five years. In Europe, the combined default and covenant-holiday rate was 3.9% in Q3 2025. The covenant-holiday portion has increased during recent quarters.

Borrower growth

In Q3 2025, 62.3% of US companies tracked by Lincoln reported higher adjusted EBITDA. The historical average is 60.7%.

Average adjusted EBITDA growth was 5.4%. This was slightly below 6.6% in Q2 2025.

Interest coverage

Interest-coverage and fixed-charge-coverage ratios improved for both US and European private-credit borrowers. Lower interest rates helped floating-rate borrowers reduce borrowing costs.

BlackRock says most of the interest-rate cuts may now be behind both regions over the medium term. Future improvements in coverage ratios may therefore need to come mainly from higher borrower EBITDA rather than lower interest expense.

Differences by borrower size

Smaller borrowers in both the US and Europe have faced more difficulty. They have recorded the slowest growth. The smallest European borrowers have reported negative year-on-year growth. Larger borrowers generally produce stronger and more stable growth.

BlackRock says smaller companies may have smaller financial buffers, less diversified businesses and weaker pricing power. Larger companies generally have greater flexibility and more operational options.

Differences by sector

Private-credit borrower performance also varies significantly by industry. Business Services and Technology have produced stronger and more consistent EBITDA growth. Industrials and Consumer have grown more slowly or less consistently.

Private-credit managers have historically preferred less cyclical sectors such as Business Services, Healthcare and Technology. This reflects the fact that lenders usually expect to hold private loans throughout the economic cycle.

Payment-in-kind interest

Payment-in-kind, or PIK, interest is interest paid by adding to the loan principal instead of paying cash. PIK use can provide information about financial pressure.

PIK as a share of interest income in the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index has remained broadly stable since 2021. As of Q3 2025, 18% of term loans using PIK were valued at 90% of par or lower, and the average fair-value mark on PIK loans was 91%.

Lincoln data also shows that the share of companies using PIK has increased over time in both the US and Europe.

BlackRock distinguishes between “good” PIK, which is included in the original loan agreement, and “bad” PIK, which is added later through amendments, often after financial stress appears.

BlackRock’s conclusion

BlackRock describes overall private-credit fundamentals as constructive. Borrowers are still growing. Coverage ratios are improving. Default rates remain contained.

However, performance varies significantly by manager experience, fund vintage, borrower size and sector. The report says this makes underwriting discipline, active credit selection and portfolio construction increasingly important as the market grows.

Glossary

The BlackRock primer is intended for qualified, professional, institutional and wholesale investors or professional clients, and is marked as not for public distribution. It states that past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and that forecasts may not come to pass. Capital is at risk. This feature reproduces the primer’s reported content and does not add independent analysis, forecasts or recommendations.

BlackRock, January 2026

Closing note

DayStarter is compiled from the Zerodha AfterMarket Report for the 10 August 2026 close and the Mint Mumbai print edition dated 11 August 2026. The feature section is sourced entirely from BlackRock, “Private Credit: A primer on a broadening asset class”, January 2026, by Dominique Bly. This brief is for information only and is not investment advice.