DayStarter

Market snapshot

Equities and sectors

Indian benchmarks closed lower after a volatile monthly F&O expiry session. The Nifty 50 closed at 23,865.75, down 0.34%, and the Sensex closed at 76,478.67, down 0.33%.

The Nifty opened with an 86-point gap up at 24,032, helped by stable global cues. It slipped toward 23,860 in the first half hour, moved back above 23,900 after 11 AM, and briefly rose to 23,990 around 11:20 AM. It then traded mostly between 23,920 and 23,950 before heavy selling around 3 PM took it close to the day’s low near 23,830. It finally closed at 23,865.75. The session had sharp intraday swings and higher volatility.

Broader markets did better than the main indices. Nifty Next 50 rose 0.17%, Nifty Midcap 150 rose 0.42%, Nifty Smallcap 250 rose 0.57%, and Nifty Microcap 250 rose 1.03%.

Sector performance

IT was the weakest sector. Nifty IT fell 2.73%. The strongest sectors were Realty and Consumer Durables, which rose 1.31% and 1.16%. Bank, FMCG, PSU Bank, and Media also ended lower.

Winners and losers: F&O stocks

Among F&O stocks, Cochin Shipyard, Maruti, Solar Industries, Force Motors, and Sammaan Capital were the top gainers. KPIT Technologies, Eicher Motors, Tata Elxsi, LTM, and Tata Consumer were the top losers.

Commodities, currency, and bonds

On MCX, Silver rose 2.03% and Zinc rose 2.30%. Gold was almost flat, up 0.09%. Crude Oil edged up 0.18%, and Natural Gas rose 1.02%.

In currency and bond markets, USD/INR closed at 94.91, up 0.13%. The India 10-year bond yield fell to 6.71, down 0.71%. The US 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.37.

Institutional flows

Over the last five sessions, FIIs were net sellers of ₹3,427 crore, while DIIs were net buyers of ₹13,902 crore. On 29 June, FIIs sold ₹1,350 crore and DIIs bought ₹2,801 crore.

Macro view

Fiscal and government finances

• Fiscal deficit: India’s fiscal deficit reached 9.6% of the full-year FY27 target, about ₹1.62 trillion, at the end of May. It narrowed from ₹3.62 lakh crore in April. The government has budgeted a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP, about ₹16.96 trillion, for FY27.
• Revenue and spending: The Centre received ₹7.19 trillion, or 19.7% of the budget estimate, in total receipts up to May. Total expenditure stood at ₹8.81 trillion, or 16% of the budget estimate. Interest payments rose to ₹1.81 trillion up to May 2026 from ₹1.48 trillion a year earlier. Food subsidy spending reached ₹40,800 crore, and urea subsidy spending rose 50% to ₹28,454 crore.
• Direct taxes: Net direct tax collections stood at ₹5.21 trillion as of 17 June, up 14.64% year-on-year. Total advance tax collections for FY27 rose 15.30% to ₹1.78 trillion. The Centre extended CBDT chairman Ravi Agrawal’s term by six months to 31 December 2026.
• Credit support: ECLGS 5.0 has seen 342,000 guarantees covering more than ₹1.31 trillion in additional credit. About 83% of this credit was channelled to MSMEs, or micro, small and medium enterprises.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Growth, inflation, and monetary policy

• Growth and the RBI Financial Stability Report: The Indian economy grew 7.7% in FY26, faster than 7.1% in the previous year. Q4 GDP growth was 7.8%. Retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May 2026 from 3.48% in April. The RBI’s macro stress tests showed that banks remain well-positioned, though household debt stood at 45.5% of GDP.
• Finance ministry June review: High-frequency indicators such as e-way bill generation, PMI readings, electricity consumption, and automobile sales continued to show strength in domestic demand. Some indicators were moderating, which pointed to “some easing in momentum.”
• Corporate bond yields: The AAA-rated five-year corporate bond yield fell to about 7.4% to 7.43%. One-year and three-year AAA yields fell 34 basis points and 24 basis points to 7.54% and 7.52%. Companies raised ₹2.26 trillion through private placements in April to June, compared with ₹3.58 trillion a year earlier.
• Rupee: The rupee recorded its first quarterly gain since March 2025. It rose about 0.2% during the June quarter, helped by lower crude prices and dollar-inflow measures, even though it slipped to 94.66 per dollar on the reference day.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Monsoon and agriculture

• Rainfall: India had a very weak June monsoon. One reading showed June rainfall 39.8% below the long-term average, at 99.5 mm against a normal 165.3 mm, making it the fifth-driest June since 1901. Another end-June reading showed rainfall 42% below normal, at 92.2 mm against 157.7 mm, and put India on track for its third-driest June in a century. The two readings used different cut-offs and reference baselines. The shortfall was linked to a strengthening El Niño.
• Kharif sowing: Kharif sowing lagged because of the delayed monsoon. Total acreage was down 23% year-on-year to 18.27 million hectares. Paddy acreage fell 25%, and oilseed acreage fell more than 53%.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Sector and trade policy

• Two-wheelers under CAFE: The Centre plans to introduce corporate average fuel efficiency, or CAFE, rules for motorcycles and scooters from April 2028. Two-wheelers account for nearly one-third of India’s annual petrol consumption of 42.6 million tonnes. India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil needs.
• Semiconductors and petrochemicals: The finance ministry cleared a ₹1.25 trillion allocation for India Semiconductor Mission 2.0. ISM 1.0 had an outlay of ₹76,000 crore. Duty-free petrochemical imports were extended till 15 July. The government raised the windfall tax on petrol exports and cut the levy on diesel and ATF.
• Welfare spending: An Azim Premji University report said India spends about 4.0% of GDP on social protection, excluding health. In 2023-24, states spent ₹15,100 per capita on social spending, compared with the Centre’s ₹2,150. Cash-transfer allocations rose about 20-fold between 2015-16 and 2024-25, reaching 11% of total social-sector spending.

Mint

Corporate action and earnings

Domestic headlines

• Adani Ports and MSC: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone agreed to sell a 49% stake in its Vizhinjam transshipment port to MSC’s unit Terminal Investment Ltd. The deal is valued at $1.4 billion, or ₹13,225 crore. TiL will pay $539 million for the stake and another $858 million by December 2028 for a $1.75 billion capacity expansion. Capacity is expected to rise to 4.1 million standard containers a year from 1.6 million.
• Kotak Mahindra Bank and Deutsche Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank signed a definitive agreement to acquire Deutsche Bank’s retail, private banking, and wealth management business in India for approximately ₹282 crore. The deal involves around ₹29,000 crore in loans, ₹16,000 crore in deposits, and ₹10,500 crore in assets under management. It covers about 150,000 customers and 1,000 employees. Completion is expected by September 2027, subject to approvals.
• Oyo IPO: Oravel Stays, the parent of Oyo, plans to raise ₹6,650 crore through an IPO. About three-fourths of the amount is planned for debt repayment or prepayment, including a ₹7,044 crore Deutsche Bank facility raised in 2021.
• Vedanta Oil & Gas: VOGL has set aside $700 million, about ₹6,600 crore, for FY27 capital expenditure. It aims to produce more than 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by FY29, compared with 87,000 boepd in FY26.
• IT mid-caps and deals: Coforge, Mphasis, and Hexaware are expected to add $647 million in new business through buyouts in FY27. Persistent Systems announced plans to acquire Nagarro for a proposed $1.3 billion. Separately, Blackstone-managed funds agreed to sell a majority stake in three Northern Virginia data centres to Digital Realty in a deal valuing the assets at $7.8 billion.
• Startups and tie-ups: Korea Venture Investment Corporation met five Indian VC funds: Exfinity, 3one4 Capital, Speciale Invest, Iron Pillar, and Trident Growth. It is exploring deployment of its $100 million Foreign VC Global Fund. Chennai’s Agnikul Cosmos partnered Finland’s ICEYE on radar, or SAR, satellites. Indus Valley raised $17 million led by Gaja Capital.
• EV policy: Ather Energy rose nearly 4% to a fresh 52-week high, and Ola Electric rose 8%, after the Delhi Cabinet approved the EV Policy 2026. Coal India plans to invest around ₹1,900 crore in R&D by FY2030.
• HUL: Hindustan Unilever reported a 5% rise in FY26 turnover to ₹63,763 crore, helped by 4% volume growth. It also reported a 15-month-high volume growth rate in the March quarter.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Upcoming corporate actions

Economic calendar

Global pulse

Global index closes

Most major global indices closed higher. Hang Seng was the main exception in this set, falling 0.63%.

International headlines

• US-Iran talks: A Qatari official said US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who arrived in Doha, would hold technical talks rather than a high-level meeting. This raised doubt about progress toward fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The 14-point interim pact gives 60 days to negotiate a permanent truce in the conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. Iran also resumed scheduled flights to Dubai.
• Gold and crude: Gold held near $4,020 an ounce, close to its lowest level since November 2025. It fell 11% in June and 14% for the quarter, its steepest quarterly fall since Q2 2013. Crude oil traded near $70.7 a barrel and ended Q2 with an approximately 30% drop, its steepest quarterly fall since 2020. Improved Strait of Hormuz shipping and US sanctions waivers on Iranian oil raised expectations of higher supply.
• Germany inflation: Germany’s annual inflation eased to 2.4% in June from 2.7% in May. This was below a Reuters forecast of 2.5%. Core inflation stayed unchanged at 2.5%, based on preliminary data.
• Corporates: Siemens Energy rose about 5% after an optimistic order-inflow outlook on its Q3 pre-close call. Meituan said it had open-sourced its next-generation LongCat large language model. The company described it as the world’s first trillion-parameter AI system trained and operated entirely on a 50,000-chip cluster powered by Chinese-made processors.
• US markets and deals: The S&P 500’s Q1 net profit margin rose to a record 14.8%, based on FactSet data, with earnings growth of 28.8%. Comcast’s planned NBCUniversal spinoff was flagged as the next major Hollywood deal target. Warren Buffett skipped his midyear donation to the Gates Foundation while a review of the foundation’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein is pending.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Management chatter

Verbatim commentary from named leaders.

Zerodha Management Chatter, 30 June 2026; Mint, 1 July 2026

Feature: How the AI boom and geopolitics are rewiring Asia’s oceans

Scale of the build-out

Subsea fibre-optic cables carry more than 95% of international internet traffic. The next investment cycle is large. Paul Brodsky, senior research manager at TeleGeography, said the value of new submarine cables planned to enter service from 2026 to 2029 is more than $16 billion. He described subsea investment as being at its highest level since 2000-2001, with a clear rise in activity across Asian routes.

TeleGeography projects that international bandwidth used by major cloud, AI, and social-media providers will rise ninefold between 2025 and 2035. These providers accounted for about 75% of all used international capacity in 2025. Autonomous AI agents are expected to increase bandwidth demand further.

AI infrastructure and data-centre routes

Hyperscalers are treating subsea cables as strategic infrastructure that links data centres. The aim is not only connectivity, but also low latency and redundancy. Examples include Google Cloud’s TalayLink between Australia and Thailand and Meta’s Candle across several Asian markets.

Asia’s AI infrastructure is taking shape as a corridor of connected hubs: Singapore-Batam, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and Japan. Julian Rawle, associate partner for subsea at Cambridge Management Consulting, said there is no freely available data yet on AI’s true bandwidth impact. His firm is therefore using a disciplined assumption of a 10% uplift above underlying demand forecasts until there is real-world evidence. TeleGeography figures cited by the IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog show that intra-Asia routes attracted about $1.2 billion of recent subsea investment.

Ownership and manufacturing concentration

Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft now own or lease around half of all undersea bandwidth worldwide. Manufacturing and installation are also highly concentrated. Around 98% of the world’s undersea cables are manufactured and installed by four firms: SubCom in the United States, Alcatel Submarine Networks in France, NEC in Japan, and HMN Technologies in China.

Goldman Sachs estimated that these hyperscalers could invest nearly $765 billion in AI-related capital expenditure during the 2026 fiscal year.

Chokepoints and permitting friction

Singapore shows why subsea routes matter. More than 99% of Singapore’s international telecommunications traffic is carried by subsea cables. China has introduced stricter permitting and has started requesting permits for cable-laying in claimed territorial waters beyond 12 nautical miles.

Higher Chinese activity in the South China Sea has contributed to delays on systems such as SJC-2 and has created permitting challenges. This is pushing developers to consider alternative designs, including routes running south through the Java Sea or routes that skirt the edge of China’s self-declared nine-dash line near the Philippines and Borneo.

Security and cable cuts

Since 2023, there have been at least 11 cases of subsea cable breakdowns around Taiwan. Some were later ruled accidents or linked to ageing equipment. Taiwan has described some incidents as grey-zone or hybrid-warfare tactics, while China has denied involvement.

In June, a Taiwanese court sentenced the Chinese captain of the vessel Hong Tai 58 to three years in jail for intentionally damaging cables off Taiwan. CSIS has written that China’s unveiling of a ship designed to cut undersea cables signals that it sees such disruption as a coercive tool in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and beyond.

India connection

Tata Communications will invest $152 million to strengthen subsea cable infrastructure between India and Singapore. The investment will add around 98 terabits per second across two projects.

• MIST system: $63 million for a Mumbai-Singapore system with about 20 tbps, targeted for ready-for-service in Q4 FY27.
• Project CS: $89 million as a consortium member for a Chennai-Singapore system with about 78 tbps, slated for Q3 FY31.

Tata Communications will also invest in new subsea cable infrastructure between India and Singapore to serve rising demand from cloud, data centres, and AI services.

• TeleGeography, via Fierce Network, AGBI, IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog, and geekfence: investment scale, bandwidth-demand forecasts, and ownership.
• CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies: Singapore case study, cable ownership, manufacturers, and cable-cutting capability.
• Capacity Global and Cambridge Management Consulting, Julian Rawle: hyperscaler routing, AI demand caution, and South China Sea permitting.
• AsiaTechLens: corridor-of-hubs framing and named cable projects, including TalayLink and Candle.
• Al Jazeera: Taiwan cable-cut incidents and Hong Tai 58 sentencing.
• Mint, 1 July 2026, and Zerodha AfterMarket Report, 30 June 2026: Tata Communications India-Singapore subsea investment.

Closing

Primary sources: Zerodha AfterMarket Report, 30 June 2026 close; Mint, Mumbai edition, 1 July 2026. This briefing is a compilation of publicly reported information for educational purposes. It is not investment advice. Figures reflect the cited sources on their stated dates. Not investment advice.