DayStarter

Market snapshot

Equities and sectors

The Nifty 50 opened 22 points lower at 24,216 because of weak global cues. It fell to an intraday low of around 24,140 near 1 PM, briefly recovered above 24,190, and then traded between 24,160 and 24,190. It closed at 24,187.70, down 0.21%.

The Sensex closed at 77,470.11, down 0.31%. Broader market indices performed better. The Nifty Next 50 rose 0.44%, the Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.37%, and the Nifty Smallcap 250 moved up 0.43%.

Realty was the strongest major sector, rising 1.07%. Auto gained 0.93%, Metal rose 0.63%, and Pharma moved up 0.34%.

PSU Bank fell 0.88%, IT declined 0.61%, and Consumer Durables ended 0.38% lower.

Winners and losers among F&O stocks

Commodities and currency

Most major MCX commodities moved higher. Silver rose 2.17%, copper gained 1.47%, and natural gas increased 1.27%. Gold and crude oil both rose 0.98%.

Zerodha marked USD/INR at 96.30, down 0.21%. Mint separately reported that the rupee strengthened by 11 paise and settled at 96.25 against the US dollar.

The US 10-year government bond yield rose 1.10% to 4.59. India’s 10-year government bond yield increased 0.18% to 6.78.

Zerodha Markets; Mint, 22 July 2026

Institutional flows

Foreign institutional investors, or FIIs, bought Indian equities worth a net ₹1,650 crore on 21 July. Domestic institutional investors, or DIIs, sold a net ₹657 crore.

Over the last five trading days, FIIs were net sellers of ₹4,789 crore, while DIIs were net buyers of ₹5,364 crore.

Thematic movers

The thematic index table in the Zerodha AfterMarket Report was not available in a machine-readable format and has not been reproduced. Movements in themes such as defence, railways, and renewable energy can be checked on the Tijori App or the NSE and BSE portals.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report

The macro view

Rural household incomes show greater stress

Nabard’s Round-12 Rural Economic Conditions and Sentiments Survey for July 2026 showed weaker income conditions in rural India.

Only 27.7% of rural households reported that their income had increased from a year earlier. This was the lowest share since the survey began in September 2024.

Another 52.6% reported no change in income, the highest share recorded so far. Meanwhile, 19.8% said their income had declined.

The share of households relying only on informal credit rose to 23.6%, also the highest level recorded in the survey.

Retail inflation reaches a 17-month high

CPI-based retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June, its highest level in 17 months.

CPI tracks the prices paid by consumers. The increase came as delayed and below-normal monsoon rainfall added pressure to food and other prices.

Monsoon, sowing, and reservoir levels remain weak

India received 23% less rainfall than normal between 1 June and 15 July.

Kharif sowing was 6% lower than a year earlier. Kharif crops are planted during the monsoon season, so delayed rainfall can reduce the area under cultivation and affect future food supply.

Reservoir levels were also much lower. As of 16 July, 166 major reservoirs held 63.25 billion cubic metres of water, compared with 103.96 billion cubic metres a year earlier. This was a decline of 39%. The reservoirs were 34.5% full.

Lower water availability also affected electricity generation. Hydropower output fell 19.5% in June to 13,361.96 million units.

RBI proposes simpler foreign investment rules

The RBI released draft rules to simplify India’s foreign investment regulations and bring them more closely in line with the government’s foreign direct investment policy.

The proposal would clearly separate the government’s FDI policy from the operational rules under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, or FEMA.

The draft is open for public comments until 31 August.

Government says the rupee is market-determined

Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary told Parliament that the rupee’s exchange rate is determined by the market.

The government does not maintain a specific exchange-rate target or trading band, even though the rupee has weakened beyond 96 against the US dollar.

He also said India’s real GDP had grown by more than 7% during each of the last three years.

Coking coal import bill declines

India’s coking coal import bill fell nearly 39% over three years.

The bill declined from $19.2 billion in FY23 to $11.76 billion in FY26. India reduced its dependence on Australia by importing more coking coal from Russia and the US.

Coking coal is mainly used in steel production.

Indian refiners suspend some Iraqi crude loadings

Two Indian state-owned refiners suspended crude oil loadings from Iraq.

The decision followed rising security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, which made it difficult to ensure the safety of ships.

Direct and regular mutual fund plans

As of May 2026, the Indian mutual fund industry managed around ₹81.6 trillion. Approximately 45% of this amount was invested through direct plans.

Direct plans do not involve a distributor and usually charge lower fees. Regular plans are sold through distributors and include distribution expenses.

Banks and financial institutions held 94.4% of their mutual fund investments through direct plans. However, high-net-worth individuals and retail investors continued to invest around 70% of their money through distributors.

Over five years, direct plans delivered a compound annual return of 11.24%, compared with 10.07% for regular plans.

Mint, 22 July 2026; IMD; Central Water Commission; National Power Portal; Hindustan Times; Bloomberg; Government data; Mint Plain Facts; Crisil; howindialives.com

Corporate developments and earnings

SBI Funds Management lists above its IPO price

SBI Funds Management, described by Mint as India’s largest fund house, listed at a premium to its IPO price of ₹574.

The stock listed 6.8% higher on the NSE and 6.2% higher on the BSE. Zerodha reported a closing price near ₹609.75 on the NSE, while Mint reported an NSE listing price of ₹613.30.

The ₹9,812.91 crore IPO was entirely an offer for sale by SBI and Amundi. It was subscribed approximately 42 times.

TVS Motor Q1FY27

TVS Motor’s net profit rose 65% from a year earlier.

Zerodha reported profit of ₹1,058 crore, while Mint reported ₹1,057 crore.

Revenue increased 33.5% to ₹16,296 crore based on Zerodha’s figures. Mint reported revenue growth of 34% to ₹16,453 crore.

Sales of two-wheelers and three-wheelers rose 28% to a record 1.63 million units.

Bajaj Auto Q1FY27

Bajaj Auto’s net profit increased sharply from a year earlier.

Zerodha reported a 45.9% increase to ₹3,226 crore. Mint reported a 44% rise to ₹3,188 crore.

Revenue rose 65% to approximately ₹21,689 crore. Growth came from record sales volumes and stronger performance in both domestic and export markets.

Maruti Suzuki raises vehicle prices

Maruti Suzuki will increase prices across its vehicle range by up to ₹30,000 from August 2026.

This will be the company’s second price increase across its portfolio in approximately two months. The company cited continued pressure from higher input costs.

Adani Energy Solutions Q1FY27

Adani Energy Solutions’ consolidated net profit more than doubled from a year earlier to ₹1,149 crore.

Revenue rose 42.4% to ₹9,711 crore. EBITDA increased 30% to ₹3,008 crore, mainly because of growth in the transmission business.

EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation. It is commonly used to measure operating performance before financing and accounting expenses.

Bandhan Bank Q1FY27

Bandhan Bank’s standalone net profit rose 35% from a year earlier to ₹502 crore, helped by lower provisions.

Net interest income increased 6% to ₹2,921 crore. Net interest margin remained at 6.2%.

Asset quality improved. Gross non-performing assets fell to 3.15%, while net non-performing assets declined to 0.93%.

JSW Steel Q1FY27

EBITDA from JSW Steel’s Indian operations rose 32% from a year earlier to ₹9,100 crore.

Revenue increased 15% to ₹42,894 crore.

The consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 1.46 times. A lower ratio generally indicates that debt has become smaller relative to operating earnings.

Adani Total Gas Q1

Adani Total Gas reported an 18% year-on-year decline in net profit to ₹133 crore.

Gas costs rose 39%, which reduced profitability. Revenue still increased 27% to ₹1,910 crore because of higher compressed natural gas volumes.

IndiGo increases its domestic market share

IndiGo’s share of India’s domestic aviation market rose to a record 66.3% in June.

The Air India group’s share fell to 23.9%, compared with 27.1% a year earlier.

Domestic air passenger traffic declined around 12% from the previous month to 1.35 crore passengers in June.

Deals and funding

Several companies reported progress on transactions and fundraising:

• Volkswagen entered advanced discussions to sell a stake in its Indian business to the JSW Group.
• InMobi appointed four banks for a possible IPO of around $1 billion.
• Even Healthcare is raising $50 million at a valuation of approximately $300 million.
• Lighthouse Learning is acquiring Meru International and Millennium World School for around ₹600 crore.

Upcoming economic events

Earnings calendar: 22 July 2026

The following companies are scheduled to report results today:

• Adani Power
• Nestle India
• Eternal
• Adani Green Energy
• Bharat Petroleum
• JSW Energy
• Oracle Financial Services Software
• United Spirits
• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
• SRF
• Hindustan Petroleum
• IndusInd Bank
• NTPC Green Energy
• Nippon Life India Asset Management
• Schaeffler India
• Tata Communications
• UCO Bank
• HFCL
• IIFL Finance
• CIE Automotive India

Meesho is scheduled to report Q1FY27 results on Thursday.

Zerodha; Mint, 22 July 2026; DGCA; Bloomberg

Global pulse

Global indices

International headlines

Crude oil and the Gulf conflict

Crude oil recovered above $84 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East increased.

The US carried out strikes for a tenth consecutive day. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on Kuwait.

Mint’s front page reported oil at $87.57, up $0.48.

Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan, which has been acting as an important mediator. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely stalled.

US imposes new tariffs on Canadian goods

The US administration moved to impose a new 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, including milk, cream, hockey equipment, and alcohol.

The tariffs were introduced under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. This was its first known use in nearly a century.

TSMC plans price increases as technology demand rises

TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced and mature chip manufacturing services by up to 10% from 2027.

Taiwan’s export orders rose 59.4% from a year earlier to a record $95.3 billion in June. The increase was driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence and other technology products.

Samsung creates a new robotics division

Samsung Electronics will create a new robotics division called RX.

The division will report directly to the chief executive officer. Samsung is treating robotics as an important source of future growth.

Red Sea shipping faces further disruption

Three oil tankers turned back in the southern Red Sea.

The decision followed warnings from the Houthis against ships travelling to or from Saudi ports.

Africa records the largest number of people facing hunger

A United Nations report found that Africa now has the largest number of people facing hunger.

Around 309 million people in Africa are affected, equal to 20% of the continent’s population. This is the first time Africa has recorded the largest total.

United Kingdom appoints its seventh prime minister in a decade

Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister of the United Kingdom.

He became the country’s seventh prime minister in ten years.

Zerodha Markets; Zerodha; Mint, 22 July 2026; Bloomberg; Nikkei Asia; Mint Quick Edit

Management commentary

The following quotations are reproduced from the Zerodha AfterMarket Report and the Mint Mumbai edition.

Zerodha Management Chatter; Mint

Feature: The true cost of a token

Is AI actually getting cheaper?

Every prompt sent to a large language model is processed in tokens. Tokens are small pieces of text that a model reads and generates. AI companies usually charge for these tokens per million.

As businesses spend more on AI, the important question is whether falling token prices are making AI more affordable in practice.

The available evidence gives two different answers. The price of each token is falling quickly, but total spending is not always falling with it.

The price per token is falling rapidly

Epoch AI studied how quickly the cost of reaching a fixed level of model performance has declined.

The cost of matching GPT-4’s score on PhD-level science questions fell by approximately 40 times per year. Across six benchmarks, the annual rate of decline ranged from 9 times to 900 times, with a median decline of 50 times.

The fall became faster after January 2024. The median rate of decline increased to around 200 times per year.

Andreessen Horowitz described the same trend as “LLMflation.”

In November 2021, GPT-3 cost around $60 per million tokens while achieving an MMLU score of 42. By late 2024, the cheapest model with a similar score was Llama 3.2 3B through Together.ai, which cost around $0.06 per million tokens.

That represents a decline of approximately 1,000 times in three years.

Andreessen Horowitz estimated that the cost of a large language model with the same level of performance was falling by around 10 times every year. This was faster than the fall in computing costs during the personal computer revolution and the fall in bandwidth costs during the dotcom boom.

Other price data supports the same trend.

Economy-tier models such as Gemini 2.0 Flash were priced near $0.10 per million tokens by early 2026. Industry trackers also placed GPT-4-equivalent performance at well below $1 per million tokens, compared with approximately $20 in late 2022.

Total AI bills are not necessarily falling

Lower token prices do not automatically reduce the total cost of using AI.

Reasoning models often generate many more tokens before producing an answer. They can therefore cost more per task even when their price per token is low.

Epoch AI excluded reasoning models from its per-token trend for this reason.

Enterprise spending data shows a similar pattern. Analyses based on Ramp data found that the average price per million tokens fell from around $10 to $2.50 in one year. However, many companies still experienced an increase in their total AI spending.

The main reason is higher consumption.

Agentic workflows can make several model calls while completing a single task. Retrieval systems often send large amounts of background information to the model, increasing the context size. Always-on monitoring systems also use tokens continuously.

Industry analyses citing Gartner estimate that agentic AI can require several times more tokens per task than a basic chatbot request.

Usage has therefore been growing faster than token prices have been falling.

Affordability depends on total token use

The price of each token is clearly falling quickly. Based on the Epoch AI and Andreessen Horowitz data, the decline is faster than the cost reductions seen in several earlier technology cycles.

However, the total cost of AI depends on how it is used.

Workloads that rely heavily on reasoning, AI agents, repeated model calls, and large context windows consume more tokens. For these systems, the number of tokens used may matter more than the price of each token.

Falling token prices explain only part of the total cost.

Feature sources

Feature sources: Epoch AI, “LLM inference prices have fallen rapidly but unequally across tasks,” Data Insight, 12 March 2025, CC BY; Andreessen Horowitz, “Welcome to LLMflation”; Artificial Analysis; Ramp spending data; Gartner estimates cited through published industry analyses.

Figures are stated as reported by the named sources. No independent reconciliation or estimation has been applied.

Epoch AI, Data Insight, 12 March 2025; Andreessen Horowitz; Artificial Analysis; Ramp spending data; Gartner estimates cited through published industry analyses

Day at a glance

Closing

Primary sources: Zerodha AfterMarket Report, market close on 21 July 2026; Mint, Mumbai edition, 22 July 2026. DayStarter is compiled from the named sources. This briefing is a factual news aggregation and is not investment or tax advice.