Market snapshot
Equities: Tuesday, 16 June close
Indian equities moved up on Tuesday as global markets were positive and crude oil prices continued to fall. The Nifty 50 opened with a 70-point gap-up at 23,924, moved towards 24,000 in the second half, touched an intraday high of 24,002.60, and closed near the top of the day’s range at 23,989.15.
| Indicator | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,989.15, up 135.25 points, or 0.57% |
| Nifty 50 intraday high | 24,002.60 |
| BSE Sensex | 76,808.48, up 544.15 points, or 0.71% |
| Bank Nifty | 57,297.15, up 0.17% |
| India VIX | 13.36, down 6.90% |
| Nifty 500 advance-decline | 296 advances, 208 declines, 1.42x |
Zerodha Aftermarket; Mint, June 17, 2026
Eight of the twelve sectors closed in the green. Market breadth was also positive, with more stocks rising than falling on the Nifty 500.
Sectoral performance
Realty and IT led the market. Metal was the weakest major sector.
Zerodha Aftermarket Report, 16 June 2026 close.
Thematic movers: 16 June
Thematic movers were led by fertilizer, EMS, IT mid-cap, tiles, real estate, and microfinance stocks.
Tijori App data.
Commodities: Tuesday, 16 June close
Crude oil continued to fall as markets expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen after the US-Iran interim deal. Gold moved up slightly, while silver and copper fell.
| Commodity | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Crude Oil, MCX | ₹7,434 per barrel, down 2.42%, WTD down 7.92% |
| Gold, MCX | ₹1,53,248 per 10g, up 0.22%, WTD up 1.81% |
| Silver, MCX | ₹2,50,765 per kg, down 0.28%, WTD up 1.86% |
| Natural Gas | ₹302.30 per mmbtu, up 1.61% |
| Copper | ₹1,335.40 per kg, down 0.40% |
| Aluminium | ₹357.80 per kg, up 0.28% |
Mint, June 17, 2026
Crude oil on MCX fell 2.42% for the day and 7.92% for the week. The fall was linked to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after the US-Iran agreement, which is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland.
By 6:30 PM, the August Brent contract was trading at approximately $79.89 per barrel, down about 4% from Monday’s close. The WTI July contract on NYMEX fell 4.33% to $77.25 per barrel. A separate Mint report said Brent had fallen more than 12% in five days to approximately $83 from $94. Even after that fall, Brent was still about 12% above the pre-conflict level of $74.
Currency and bonds: 16 June
| Indicator | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| USD/INR futures | ₹94.53, firmed 0.17% |
| India 2-year yield | 6.108%, down 6 bps |
| India 5-year yield | 6.452%, down 1 bp |
| India 10-year yield | 6.863%, down 1 bp |
| US 2-year yield, prior session | 4.070%, down 2 bps |
| US 10-year yield, prior session | 4.470%, down 1 bp |
Zerodha Aftermarket
Indian bond yields moved down across the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturities. A lower yield means bond prices moved up. US yield data reflects the prior session close.
Institutional flows: 15 June
Zerodha Aftermarket Report.
Combined FII-DII flows were positive over the previous sessions as well: +₹4,259 crore on 12 June, +₹2,238 crore on 11 June, +₹999 crore on 10 June, and +₹1,593 crore on 9 June.
Lead story: Nifty tests 24,000 as crude extends slide
The main market story was the fall in crude oil and the positive reaction in Indian equities. The Nifty 50 opened higher, stayed firm through the session, and closed close to 24,000. The Sensex rose 544.15 points to 76,808.48. Bank Nifty added 0.17% to close at 57,297.15.
The move was helped by positive global cues and a further decline in oil prices. India VIX fell 6.90% to 13.36, showing that near-term market volatility expectations came down.
Realty rose 2.26% and IT rose 1.78%, making them the strongest sectors. Metal fell 1.55%, making it the main laggard. The FII-DII combined net flow on 15 June was +₹3,389 crore.
Zerodha Aftermarket; Mint, June 17, 2026
Crude oil and the US-Iran interim deal
Crude oil fell more than 3% to below $78 per barrel during the session. This was the fourth straight session of declines and the lowest level since early March. The fall came after expectations that the US-Iran Hormuz reopening agreement would be signed on Friday in Switzerland.
The US-Iran interim deal framework would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US said the strait would be open toll-free for 60 days. President Trump said the text states that Tehran will not have a nuclear weapon.
The Strait of Hormuz matters because it is a major route for global energy trade. A reopening can reduce pressure on crude prices, but normalisation may take time. Officials cautioned that shipping and energy exports could take weeks to recover. A minesweeping operation could take weeks to months.
The conflict has killed at least 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Mint, 17 June 2026.
Global markets: BOJ raises rates, SpaceX rises sharply
Bank of Japan raises rates to 1%
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%. This is its highest policy rate in more than 30 years and the first time the rate has been at 1% since 1995.
SpaceX rises sharply
SpaceX shares rose more than 14% to approximately $220. That price is 62% above the $135 IPO price. The move took SpaceX’s market capitalisation to approximately $2.85 trillion, briefly placing it above Amazon at $2.64 trillion and closer to Microsoft at $2.92 trillion.
Mint, 17 June 2026.
SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion and a net loss of $4.94 billion last year. The company is set for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. FTSE Russell and MSCI will add the stock effective 26 June and 29 June respectively. SpaceX also agreed to acquire Anysphere for $60 billion.
Global equities close higher
Global equity markets also closed higher.
Zerodha Aftermarket Report; Mint, 17 June 2026.
US-Iran interim deal: Ceasefire extended by 60 days
The US-Iran interim deal framework is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. It would extend a ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US said the strait would be open toll-free for 60 days.
President Trump said the text states Tehran will not have a nuclear weapon. Officials cautioned that shipping and energy exports could take weeks to recover. A minesweeping operation could take weeks to months.
The conflict has killed at least 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.
Mint, June 17, 2026
SpaceX acquires Anysphere, Robinhood cuts jobs, China retail sales fall
SpaceX agreed to acquire Anysphere for $60 billion.
Robinhood will cut about 10% of its full-time workforce, or approximately 290 employees.
China’s retail sales fell 0.6% in May. This was the first monthly decline since December 2022.
Yum! Brands agreed to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion. LongRange Capital will acquire Pizza Hut excluding China for $1.5 billion, while Yum China Holdings will buy the China business for $1.2 billion. The transactions are expected to close in the third quarter.
Pizza Hut’s share of Yum’s revenue fell to approximately 12% in 2025 from more than 18% in 2019.
Mint; Zerodha Aftermarket, June 17, 2026
G7: Russia oil sanctions, shadow fleet, and India-Canada talks
At the G7 summit in Evian, Trump signalled that US sanctions on Russian oil shipments could be reimposed as oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet.
India and Canada agreed to accelerate talks toward a comprehensive economic partnership agreement in 2026.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Anthropic: Access suspended to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
Anthropic suspended access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 after US authorities restricted access over security concerns. Talks with the administration continued without a resolution.
Amazon researchers found a way around Fable’s guardrails after release. Anthropic was recently valued at $965 billion.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Global numbers
India is projected to reach 1.1 billion 5G subscriptions by end-2031, per Ericsson.
Hong Kong has $32.5 billion of stock lockups expiring in July.
Salesforce agreed to pay $3.6 billion to acquire Fin.
BHP and Rio Tinto pointed to India as the next growth engine for steel. India has a production target of 500 million tonnes by 2047.
SpaceX shares rose more than 14% to approximately $220, which is 62% above the $135 IPO price. This took its market capitalisation to approximately $2.85 trillion, briefly above Amazon at $2.64 trillion and closer to Microsoft at $2.92 trillion.
Mint; Zerodha Aftermarket, June 17, 2026
Macro view
Exports: Merchandise exports hit $45.2 billion in May
India’s merchandise exports rose to a record $45.2 billion in May, up 18% year-on-year. Imports rose 20.6%, driven by a 53.8% jump in oil imports. The trade deficit stood at $28.2 billion in May, broadly in line with FY26 levels of $27.8 billion.
A trade deficit means imports are higher than exports. In May, India exported a record amount of goods, but the import bill also rose sharply because oil imports increased.
| Indicator | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Merchandise exports, May | $45.2 billion |
| Export growth | 18% YoY |
| Trade deficit, May | $28.2 billion |
| FY26 trade deficit level | $27.8 billion |
| Import growth | 20.6% |
| Oil import growth | 53.8% |
Mint, June 17, 2026
Petroleum product exports rose 36.8% in April and 54.9% in May in dollar terms. Excluding petroleum products, export growth was 9.0% in April and 11.9% in May.
Petroleum product export volumes fell 22.7% year-on-year in April, even though their dollar value rose 36.8%. This means the value of exports increased even as the physical quantity exported fell.
Within non-oil exports, engineering goods rose 24.5%, and electronics goods rose 11.6%.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Inflation: WPI at 9.7% under new index
WPI inflation rose to 9.7% in May. The new index replaces the 2011-12 base year with 2022-23 and uses 957 items instead of 697.
The government also launched producer price and service indices, including an output producer price index. Retail inflation rose above 3.9% last month.
WPI tracks wholesale prices. Retail inflation tracks prices paid by consumers. A high WPI can matter for businesses because it points to higher input costs.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Monsoon: 10 of 17 sub-divisions below normal
Early rainfall data showed that 10 of the 17 sub-divisions covered by the south-west monsoon up to 15 June received below-normal rainfall.
The largest deviations from the long-period average for 1-15 June were:
Mint, 17 June 2026.
Monsoon progress matters because rainfall affects food output, rural income, and food inflation.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Urea imports: Latest bids far below April tender
The fertilizer department’s NFL urea import tender was floated on 27 May for 1.7 million tonnes. It drew bids from 27 suppliers for 6.25 million tonnes.
| Detail | Reading |
|---|---|
| Tender size | 1.7 million tonnes |
| Bids received | 6.25 million tonnes |
| Number of suppliers | 27 |
| Aditya Birla Global Trading bid | $444.9 per tonne, east coast, 500,000 tonnes |
| Ameropa Asia bid | $449.3 per tonne, west coast, 234,000 tonnes |
| April tender price | $935-959 per tonne |
Mint, June 17, 2026
The latest bids were much lower than the $935-959 per tonne range seen in the 4 April tender. The Centre budgeted ₹1.77 trillion for fertilizer subsidy in the current fiscal. The fertilizer subsidy bill crossed ₹2.17 trillion in FY26.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Mint, 17 June 2026.
Finance, credit, and policy
Gold loans: Market reaches ₹18.6 trillion in FY26
India’s gold-loan market reached ₹18.6 trillion in FY26, up 50.4% year-on-year. It is now the second-largest retail credit segment after housing loans.
Gold loans’ share of retail credit nearly doubled to 11.1% in December 2025 from 5.9% in March 2022, per TransUnion CIBIL. New gold loan originations rose 115% year-on-year to ₹7.6 trillion in the final quarter of FY26, per Experian.
Mint, June 17, 2026
State finances: Liabilities reach ₹90.51 trillion
Combined liabilities of India’s 28 states rose to ₹90.51 trillion in 2024-25, per the CAG’s State Finances 2024-25 report. Outstanding public debt reached ₹75.52 trillion.
Eighteen states overshot the 15th Finance Commission’s fiscal deficit ceiling of 3% of GSDP. Thirteen states recorded revenue surpluses in FY25, while fifteen remained in deficit.
A fiscal deficit means the government’s spending is higher than its income. A revenue surplus means revenue receipts are higher than revenue spending.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Affordable housing loans: Public sector banks reach 29.5% of FY26 target
Public sector banks sanctioned 191,000 affordable housing loans in FY26 under the EWS, LIG, and MIG urban categories. This was against a target of 643,000 loans, meaning banks met 29.5% of the goal.
Mint, 17 June 2026.
State-run banks have a target of more than 1.23 million such loans for FY27.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Drugs Rules: Cough syrups removed from Schedule K
The Union health ministry amended the Drugs Rules, 1945, removing cough syrups from Schedule K. They can now be sold in rural areas with fewer than 1,000 residents only through licensed pharmacies.
The change follows the deaths of at least 22 children in Madhya Pradesh’s Chhindwara district after consuming contaminated syrup.
Mint, June 17, 2026
TransUnion CIBIL; Mint, 17 June 2026.
Corporate and earnings digest
Corporate developments in focus
HCLTech invests ₹1,427 crore in Sarvam AI
HCLTech invested ₹1,427 crore, or $150 million, in Sarvam AI for a 10.46% stake. The investment anchors Sarvam’s Series B round and values the company at $1.5 billion.
This is the first investment by an Indian IT services company in a sovereign AI company, per Nomura. Sarvam reported revenue of ₹45.1 crore in FY26, up from ₹1.5 crore in FY25. HCLTech ended FY26 with $14.66 billion in revenue, up 6%.
“This really creates one more very significant growth vector, which is sovereign AI.”C. Vijayakumar, CEO, HCLTech
Mint, June 17, 2026
TCS to book $70 million exceptional charge
TCS will book a one-time exceptional charge of $70 million in Q1 FY27 after the US Supreme Court rejected its appeal in a trade secrets case.
The company’s total exposure is approximately $220 million. This includes a $168 million damages award in favour of DXC Technology.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Adani Ports expands Kaleris partnership
Adani Ports and SEZ expanded its partnership with US-based Kaleris. The company will invest up to $100 million in two phases to deploy an AI-enabled operating platform across 15 container terminals.
The expected gains include up to 20% improvement in RTG crane productivity and up to 14% improvement in terminal truck productivity.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Corporate developments
| Company | Development | Notable detail |
|---|---|---|
| Vedanta demerger listings | Four entities listed on BSE and NSE on 15 June: Vedanta Aluminium, VAML; Oil and Gas, VOGL; Power, VEDPOWER; Iron and Steel, VISL | VAML fell 5.00%, VOGL fell 4.99%, and GICRE fell 7.97% on Day 2. GIC Re OFS was subscribed 3.72x on day one, and the full 3% greenshoe was exercised. |
| JLR and Tata Motors | JLR paid a record dividend of ₹4,660 crore to Tata Motors PV in FY26, funded by FY25 profits | JLR reported a net loss of approximately ₹2,400 crore in FY26 versus a profit of approximately ₹21,600 crore in FY25. JLR volumes fell 23% to 308,000 units. Tata Motors PV revenue fell 8% to ₹3.35 trillion. |
| JSW Energy | JSW Energy is acquiring Maruti Clean Coal and Power Ltd, a 300 MW plant in Chhattisgarh, for ₹1,410 crore at 5.1x EV/EBITDA | MCCPL had revenue of ₹790 crore and EBITDA of ₹280 crore in FY26, with an 84% plant load factor. JSW Energy’s net debt was ₹65,834 crore at FY26-end, with net debt-to-EBITDA at 6x. |
| FMCG price hikes | Colgate-Palmolive, Dabur India, and Hindustan Unilever increased toothpaste prices in June | The price hikes were to offset rising raw material and packaging costs. |
| India services exports | The services sector’s share in total exports rose from 33.8% in FY15 to 48.8% in FY26 | Services exports nearly tripled to $421.3 billion over the period. |
| Skyroot Aerospace | Swiggy’s Sriharsha Majety and Nandan Reddy each invested ₹4.99 crore in a pre-Series C2 round | The round valued Skyroot at $1.25 billion, or approximately ₹11,875 crore, days after it raised $60 million to attain unicorn status. |
| Turtlemint IPO | Price band set at ₹144-152 for a ₹883 crore IPO | The IPO opens Friday and closes 23 June. It is expected to list at a $475 million valuation. KIMS launched a QIP to raise up to ₹1,500 crore at an indicative ₹755 per share. Sify Infinit Spaces put its ₹3,700 crore IPO on hold. |
| BigBasket | BigBasket appointed former Amazon India executive Amit Nanda as CEO | He is the first external executive to lead the platform. Co-founders Hari Menon and Vipul Parekh remain on the board. Revenue was ₹9,866.7 crore in FY25, down 1.9%. Net loss widened 41.8% to ₹2,006.8 crore. |
Mint; Zerodha Aftermarket, June 17, 2026
More corporate developments
Karam, an industrial safety gear maker, is in talks to raise $70-100 million from private equity funds including Lighthouse Funds, Multiples, and Motilal Oswal Alternates. The company is seeking a valuation of up to $600 million.
TruNativ raised approximately $30 million in a Series B round led by OrbiMed.
Essar Energy Transition Fuels and IRH Global Trading agreed to a $500 million crude sourcing and product supply facility for the Stanlow refinery in the UK.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Home loan overdraft accounts
A home loan overdraft account charges interest only on the net loan outstanding after adjusting funds parked in the overdraft account.
These products usually carry a slightly higher rate than standard home loans. The facility is offered under products such as SBI Maxgain and Bank of Baroda Home Loan Advantage.
Mint, June 17, 2026
Management chatter
Meta: Reshaping the workforce around AI
“Given the complexity of these changes, we've made mistakes and will almost certainly make more.” “I don't want to overpromise because the world is changing in ways that are out of our control.”Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Meta
Zerodha Aftermarket Report
E100 fuel and ethanol pricing
“The major issue as far as the sugar sector is concerned is that they are still struggling with very low price of ethanol.” “If the returns from ethanol for the sugar sector are lower than sugar, then why would they make it?”Atul Chaturvedi, Executive Chairman, Shree Renuka Sugars
Zerodha Aftermarket Report
Sovereign AI as a growth vector
“This really creates one more very significant growth vector, which is sovereign AI.”C. Vijayakumar, CEO, HCLTech
Mint, June 17, 2026
Wednesday feature: CAGR vs XIRR
Why the return a fund shows is not always the return a SIP investor earned
India has more than 10 crore mutual fund SIP accounts. These investors together invest more than ₹30,000 crore into mutual funds every month, or roughly ₹1,000 crore every day.
This steady SIP flow has provided some cushion while foreign investors have been selling over the last couple of months. But the return number most often quoted for a mutual fund, CAGR, does not always show the actual return earned by a SIP investor.
Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
What CAGR measures
CAGR stands for compounded annual growth rate. It measures the annualised return from the fund’s NAV at the start to the NAV at the end. It uses one starting point, one ending point, and the time between them.
CAGR works well for a lump-sum investor who invests all the money on one day. For that investor, the start and end points capture the full investment period.
But a SIP investor does not invest all the money on one day. A SIP invests a fixed amount every month. Because each instalment enters the fund at a different NAV and stays invested for a different period, CAGR does not fully capture the SIP investor’s actual experience.
Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
The SBI Small Cap and Union Small Cap example
Over the 10 years from June 2016 to June 2026, SBI Small Cap Fund and Union Small Cap Fund showed different results depending on whether CAGR or SIP XIRR was used.
ACE MF Database; Zerodha Varsity, 6 June 2026.
With a ₹10,000 monthly SIP, the SBI investor ended up with approximately ₹29.98 lakh. The Union investor ended up with approximately ₹33.03 lakh. The fund with the lower CAGR gave the SIP investor approximately ₹3 lakh more.
The total invested in each fund was ₹12.1 lakh. Across approximately 40 funds checked, a handful of such cases were found.
ACE MF Database, NAV data, June 2016-June 2026; Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
Why the path of returns matters
If all the money had been invested on Day 1 as a lump sum, SBI would have given the higher return. The CAGR number was not wrong. It was just not the right measure for the SIP journey.
A SIP buys units every month at the prevailing NAV. When the NAV is low, the fixed SIP amount buys more units. When the NAV is high, the same SIP amount buys fewer units.
SBI Small Cap’s NAV went from ₹34 in 2016 to approximately ₹97 by 2021, nearly tripling. This meant later SIP instalments bought fewer units.
Union Small Cap’s NAV went from ₹12 to approximately ₹25 by 2021, about doubling. This allowed the SIP to keep buying units at lower prices, and those units rose in value later.
NAV levels across funds are arbitrary. The important factor was the return path. Union stayed relatively subdued in the early SIP years and rose later. In finance, this is called the sequence of returns. For a lump-sum investor, it makes no difference. For a SIP investor, it can change the final outcome.
Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
What XIRR measures
XIRR stands for extended internal rate of return. It looks at every cash flow separately.
In a 10-year SIP, the first instalment stays invested for 10 years. The second instalment stays invested for 9 years and 11 months. The last instalment may stay invested for only one month. XIRR accounts for each instalment’s timing and gives one annualised return number.
Zerodha Varsity, 6 June 2026.
CAGR is useful for evaluating how well a fund manager grew money overall. SIP XIRR is better for understanding how the fund performed for a SIP investor.
Fund factsheets often show SIP returns. If they do not, the fund house website may provide the information. Another option is to download past NAV data and use the XIRR formula in Excel.
In the small-cap comparison, SBI ranked #1 on CAGR at 19.04%, but #3 on SIP XIRR at 17.37%. Union ranked #3 on CAGR at 17.14%, but #1 on SIP XIRR at 19.23%. DSP ranked #2 on both, with CAGR of 17.33% and SIP XIRR of 18.91%. Franklin ranked #4 on both, with CAGR of 16.05% and SIP XIRR of 17.33%.
Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
Personal XIRR and fund XIRR
A personal XIRR goes one step further. It is shown by investment platforms and includes the investor’s own cash flows.
This means paused SIPs, withdrawals, and extra contributions are included. A personal XIRR can differ from the fund’s standard SIP XIRR because the cash flow timelines are different.
Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026
SIP performance: XIRR gives a fuller picture
For SIP performance, CAGR does not show the full picture. XIRR is the more useful measure because it considers the timing of each investment.
For a long-term investor, a falling market early in the SIP journey can help collect more units at lower prices. These units may benefit when markets recover later. The piece notes that this is not an argument to stay with a poorly performing fund manager. It only explains why units bought during a correction can be valuable when prices rise later.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it.”Benjamin Franklin
Zerodha Varsity, “CAGR vs XIRR, explained for SIP investors,” June 6, 2026. NAV and SIP data: ACE MF Database, June 2016-June 2026.
Upcoming events
Zerodha Aftermarket Report; Mint, 17 June 2026.
The day at a glance
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,989.15, up 0.57% |
| BSE Sensex | 76,808.48, up 0.71% |
| India VIX | 13.36, down 6.90% |
| Crude Oil, MCX | ₹7,434 per barrel, down 2.42%, WTD down 7.92% |
| Brent crude, August contract | Approximately $79.89 per barrel, down about 4% |
| WPI inflation, May | 9.7%, under a new index |
| Merchandise exports, May | $45.2 billion, up 18% YoY |
| Trade deficit, May | $28.2 billion |
| FII-DII combined net flow, 15 June | +₹3,389 crore |
| Gold-loan market, FY26 | ₹18.6 trillion, up 50.4% YoY |
Mint, June 17, 2026; Zerodha Aftermarket Report, 16 June 2026 close
Closing thought
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it.”Benjamin Franklin
Compiled from Mint Newspaper, June 17, 2026; Zerodha Aftermarket Report, June 16, 2026 close; and Zerodha Varsity, June 6, 2026. Markets data reflects Tuesday, 16 June 2026 close. For informational purposes only. Not investment analysis.