DayStarter

Nifty edges up as a deficient monsoon clouds the outlook

DayStarter, Vol. I, No. 33, by Devraj Pant. Indian benchmarks moved up slightly in the last trading session before the long weekend, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,056.00 and the Sensex at 77,100.47, both up 0.14%. Monsoon rainfall was 41.6% below normal as of 24 June, Persistent proposed a $1.3 billion acquisition of Nagarro, and Amazon plans to invest $48 billion in India between 2026 and 2030.

Friday, 26 June 2026 was a market holiday; the latest available market close is Thursday, 25 June 2026. Today’s market tables therefore carry that same Thursday close.

Market snapshot

24,056.00
Nifty 50 close
The Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 on 25 June, up 0.14% from its previous close of 24,021.65. It closed near the day’s low after profit-booking pulled the index lower through the final hour.
+2.25%
Auto sector
Auto was the strongest sector, rising 2.25%. FMCG rose 0.68%, and Realty rose 0.33%. Metal was the weakest sector, falling 1.37%.
41.6%
Monsoon rainfall below normal
As of 24 June, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 41.6% below normal. About 72% of India’s 714 districts recorded deficient or large deficient rainfall.

Benchmarks: Thursday, 25 June close

Indian benchmarks moved up slightly in the last trading session before the long weekend. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 on 25 June, up 0.14% from its previous close of 24,021.65. The Sensex closed at 77,100.47, also up 0.14%. The Nifty Next 50 rose 0.19% to 72,199.55.

The Nifty 50 and Sensex rose 0.14% while the broader market was weaker
Benchmark index readings, 25 June 2026 close
IndexCloseChange
Nifty 5024,056.00+0.14%
Sensex77,100.47+0.14%
Nifty Next 5072,199.55+0.19%
Midcap 15022,751.05-0.53%
Smallcap 25017,704.70-0.45%
Microcap 25024,955.40-0.62%

Zerodha AfterMarket Report, NSE

The broader market was weaker. The Midcap 150 fell 0.53%, the Smallcap 250 fell 0.45%, and the Microcap 250 fell 0.62%.

The Nifty opened 104 points higher at 24,126, helped by positive global cues and crude oil slipping below $70 per barrel. The index moved toward 24,250 by around noon. It later gave up gains after profit-booking began. Selling after 2 PM pulled the index lower through the final hour, and it closed near the day’s low at 24,056.

Sectors

Auto was the strongest sector, rising 2.25%. FMCG rose 0.68%, and Realty rose 0.33%. Metal was the weakest sector, falling 1.37%. IT fell 0.86%.

Exhibit 1
Auto led at +2.25% while Metal lagged at -1.37%
Sector index moves, %, 25 June 2026 close
0% +2.25 Auto +0.68 FMCG +0.33 Realty +0.09 PSU Bank +0.05 Bank Service −0.07 Pharma −0.20 Media −0.63 Cons. Durables −0.67 Energy −0.68 IT −0.86 Metal −1.37 5 of 12 sectors closed higher

Zerodha AfterMarket Report.

F&O movers

Among F&O stocks, the top gainers were MOTHERSON (+5.03%), INDIGO (+4.89%), OFSS (+4.65%), ASHOKLEY (+4.01%), and TVSMOTOR (+3.99%). The top losers were BANDHANBNK (-4.54%), NATIONALUM (-4.46%), HINDZINC (-4.26%), TIINDIA (-3.49%), and MUTHOOTFIN (-3.39%).

Exhibit 2
MOTHERSON led F&O gainers at +5.03% as BANDHANBNK fell 4.54%
Top F&O gainers and losers, %, 25 June 2026 close
0% +5.03 MOTHERSON +4.89 INDIGO +4.65 OFSS +4.01 ASHOKLEY +3.99 TVSMOTOR BANDHANBNK −4.54 NATIONALUM −4.46 HINDZINC −4.26 TIINDIA −3.49 MUTHOOTFIN −3.39

Zerodha AfterMarket Report.

Commodities

Gold closed slightly higher. Silver rose 1.70%. Crude oil fell 0.70%, while natural gas rose 3.01%.

Silver rose 1.70% and natural gas 3.01% while crude eased 0.70%
MCX futures, 25 June 2026 close
MCX futurePriceChange
Gold₹1,41,428+0.11%
Silver₹2,16,699+1.70%
Crude Oil₹6,622-0.70%
Natural Gas₹311.50+3.01%
Zinc₹354.45+0.21%
Copper₹1,243.75+1.67%
Aluminium₹330.30-0.06%

Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Currency, bond yields, flows, and themes

USDINR closed at 94.44, down 0.11%. The India 10-year bond yield was 6.77, down 0.19%. The US 10-year bond yield was 4.41, up 0.23%.

Mint’s 29 June markets strip quoted the rupee at ₹94.40 to the dollar, ₹107.26 to the euro, and ₹124.47 to the pound. Oil was quoted at $72.98, a $2.10 move.

Over the five sessions to 24 June, FIIs were net buyers of ₹1,373 crore, while DIIs were net buyers of ₹7,710 crore.

FIIs added ₹1,373 crore and DIIs ₹7,710 crore over the five sessions to 24 June
Institutional net flows by session, ₹ crore
DateFII flowDII flow
24 Jun-₹1,843 crore+₹3,637 crore
23 Jun+₹18 crore+₹680 crore
22 Jun-₹636 crore+₹1,036 crore
19 Jun+₹4,859 crore-₹1,160 crore
18 Jun-₹1,025 crore+₹3,517 crore
Total+₹1,373 crore+₹7,710 crore

Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Exhibit 3
DIIs outbought FIIs over the five sessions to 24 June
Net institutional flows, ₹ crore, five sessions to 24 June 2026
₹0 +₹1,373 cr FII net +₹7,710 cr DII net

Zerodha AfterMarket Report.

For June month-to-date, Mint reported FIIs as net sellers of ₹45,130 crore and DIIs as net buyers of ₹76,160 crore.

Macro view

Monsoon and agriculture

As of 24 June, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 41.6% below normal. The IMD had forecast June to September rainfall at 90% of the long-period average. On 29 May, the government said below-normal rainfall was likely over most parts of the country.

Rainfall weakness was broad. About 72% of India’s 714 districts recorded deficient or large deficient rainfall. Around 34% were in the large deficient band, meaning rainfall was 60% or more below the long-period average. This included 23 of 33 districts in Chhattisgarh and 25 of 36 districts in Maharashtra.

Agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan said contingency plans are active across 315 vulnerable districts. The IMD forecast strengthening El Niño conditions. Mint also noted that 2025 seasonal monsoon rainfall stood at 895 mm.

Mint, Plain Facts

Power, floods, and inflation risk

Heavy rainfall swelled rivers across North-East India. This threatened hydropower, coal transport, and agricultural movement. The region holds about 6GW of India’s 48GW of installed hydropower capacity.

A 24 June cloudburst in Arunachal Pradesh’s Keyi Panyor district sent debris into the Ranganadi dam, which feeds the 405MW Ranganadi project. All three turbines were stopped. Restarting even one turbine is expected to take 15 to 20 days.

India recorded peak summer power demand of 270.8GW. Coal accounts for 228.5GW, or 42%, of India’s total installed capacity of 537.2GW. Thermal coal inventories were about 45 million tonnes, enough for just over 14 days of demand.

Exhibit 5
Coal supplies 228.5GW of India's 537.2GW installed capacity
Installed capacity, peak demand, and hydropower, GW
0 537.2GW Total installedcapacity 270.8GW Peak summerdemand 228.5GW Coalcapacity 42% of total 48GW Hydropowertotal 6GW North-Easthydropower

Mint; CEA via Mint.

Policy and growth

RBI MPC external member Nagesh Kumar said India could grow by more than 7% this fiscal if crude stays around $70. This would be above the RBI’s 6.6% forecast. The view was linked to easing Middle East tensions.

The RBI issued directions this week on how banks advertise and sell financial products. The directions identify 11 dark pattern tactics, define mis-selling in law, and bar third-party incentives and mandatory bundling.

The government has raised about ₹25,491 crore through OFS stake sales in eight listed PSUs in 2026. This is the highest amount in 11 years.

India and Seychelles unveiled 19 outcomes, including an extradition treaty and a UPI-based payments pact. The Board of Trade meets on 3 July.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Mint; Mint Money

Corporate action and earnings

Major corporate developments

Persistent proposed a $1.3 billion Nagarro deal as Amazon pledged $48 billion for India
Selected corporate developments, 27-29 June 2026
CompanyDevelopment
Persistent SystemsProposed a $1.3 billion acquisition of German digital engineering firm Nagarro SE at €81 per share. This would be its largest-ever deal. The deal targets a $5 billion revenue run rate by March 2031 and would lift the combined entity, with around $2.9 billion revenue, to India’s seventh-largest IT services firm. Persistent ended FY26 with $1.65 billion in revenue, up 17%. The deal is expected to close by March 2027.
AmazonWill invest $48 billion in India between 2026 and 2030. This will take its cumulative India investment past $88 billion since 2010. The plan includes an additional $13 billion to expand AI and cloud infrastructure by 2030.
Kotak Mahindra BankCEO Ashok Vaswani will step down at the end of his term on 31 December 2026 for personal reasons. The board has begun the process to appoint a new MD and CEO.
ITCReported consolidated FY26 revenue of ₹89,913.33 crore, up 10%. Its new-age acquired brands grew 60% in FY26 and reached an annual revenue run rate of more than ₹1,350 crore.
ONGC and BPSigned a technical services agreement for ONGC’s Western Offshore Basin, which covers 43 offshore blocks. BP will help improve production from the region.
SBIWas the largest credit card issuer in May, adding 1.82 lakh new cards. Spending rose 2% month-on-month to ₹38,556 crore. ICICI Bank added 1.68 lakh cards. HDFC Bank remained the largest by base, with ₹59,138 crore in spending.

Mint; Mint News Wrap

Exhibit 6
HDFC Bank led card spending at ₹59,138 crore in May
Monthly credit card spending, ₹ crore, May 2026
₹0 ₹59,138 cr HDFC Bank Largest by spending base ₹38,556 cr SBI +2% month-on-month ICICI added 1.68 lakh cards; SBI 1.82 lakh

Mint; Mint News Wrap.

Corporate briefs

HDFC Bank: Governance review

External law firms Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati and Wadia Ghandy & Co. found no basis for former chairman Atanu Chakraborty’s statement on corporate governance concerns. Chakraborty called the review a “superfluous exercise”.

Mint

IPO pipeline: Cube Highways and Square Yards

Cube Highways Trust, backed by ADIA and Mubadala, has begun roadshows for a possible October launch. It aims to raise ₹5,000 crore through an offer for sale.

Square Yards has engaged Axis Capital, JP Morgan, and BofA for a $200 million to $300 million IPO next financial year at an approximate valuation of $2 billion. The company reported FY26 revenue of ₹2,086 crore, up 48%.

Mint

Sterlite Technologies and Raymond Lifestyle

Sterlite Technologies shares rose nearly 5% after the company launched a QIP.

Raymond Lifestyle changed the pay structure for new CEO Satyaki Ghosh. The revised package includes ₹7.35 crore in annual CTC and ₹4.5 crore in special retention pay over five years. The company has cycled through four executives in five years.

Mint

Fundraising and capex briefs

Progcap aims to raise up to $45 million, or around ₹425 crore, through private placement in FY28.

Embassy Developments will invest ₹1,500 crore in a 3 million sq. ft office complex in Bengaluru. This is the first phase of a 6 million sq. ft, 35-acre project.

Fusion CX will invest ₹100 crore over three years in an IT and ITeS campus near Kolkata. The campus will have capacity for more than 9,000 people.

Mint

Upcoming events

Economic calendar

FX reserves, industrial production, and bank credit data are due this week
Economic calendar, 26-29 June 2026
DateEvent
26 JunFX Reserves
28 JunIndustrial Production
29 JunBank Credit
29 JunBank Deposit

Zerodha Economic Calendar

Exhibit 7
Data releases and ex-dates cluster from 26 to 30 June
Scheduled events, 26 to 30 June 2026
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun FX Reserves Industrial Production Bank Credit; Bank Deposit Ex-dates: Jyothy Labs, Kajaria Ceramics buyback, Kansai Nerolac, Kalpataru Projects Intl, Raymond Lifestyle Ex-dates: Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Holdings, Bajaj Finance, Maharashtra Scooters, Welspun Corp

Zerodha Economic Calendar; BSE.

Corporate actions: Ex date and record date

A cluster of dividends and a buyback go ex-date on 29 and 30 June
Corporate actions by ex-date
DateCompany and action
29 JunJyothy Labs: Final Dividend ₹3.50
29 JunKajaria Ceramics: Buy Back of Shares
29 JunKansai Nerolac: Final Dividend ₹2.50
29 JunKedia Construction: Reduction of Capital
29 JunKalpataru Projects Intl: Final Dividend ₹11.00
29 JunRaymond Lifestyle: Final Dividend ₹1.00
30 JunBajaj Finserv: Final Dividend ₹1.50
30 JunBajaj Holdings: Final Dividend ₹80.00 and Special Dividend ₹50.00
30 JunBajaj Finance: Final Dividend ₹6.00
30 JunMaharashtra Scooters: Final Dividend ₹60.00
30 JunWelspun Corp: Final Dividend ₹5.00

BSE; Zerodha Economic Calendar

Global pulse

Global indices

Exhibit 8
The Nikkei jumped 4.61% while the Hang Seng fell 1.43%
Global index moves, %, latest close
0% +4.61 Nikkei +2.13 Nasdaq +0.70 FTSE +0.66 S&P 500 +0.35 Dow +0.23 Shanghai Hang Seng −1.43 6 of 7 global benchmarks closed higher

Zerodha Market Performance.

International headlines

West Asia and oil

Fresh US-Iran strikes over the weekend clouded the global oil outlook. The US said it struck Iranian military sites in retaliation for an alleged attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran aimed drones at US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Talks over a 17 June MoU are due to resume Monday.

On Friday, Brent and WTI August contracts fell 4.34% and 3.74%, settling at $71.99 and $69.23 per barrel.

Mint

Technology and metals

Asian technology stocks rallied after updates from Micron and Qualcomm. Micron said customers had committed $22 billion for memory chips. Qualcomm projected $15 billion in data-centre revenue by 2029.

Gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce, close to an eight-month low. Silver fell below $57. A stronger dollar and rising Fed rate-hike expectations put pressure on prices.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report

BIS and AI

The Bank for International Settlements warned about several pressure points: inflation from the West Asia war, concerns about cooling AI investment, strong risk appetite, and high public debt. It urged policymakers to “act now”.

A WSJ report carried by Mint said Zhipu AI, also called Z.ai, can match the latest US models in finding security bugs. A Financial Times report said Google limited Meta’s use of its Gemini models because of compute capacity.

Mint; WSJ via Mint; Financial Times via Mint

Global numbers

A record European heatwave that began on 20 June left France reporting 1,000 excess deaths. Two earthquakes, with magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5, struck off Venezuela.

SpaceX could draw around $4.3 billion in passive inflows after a 7 July Nasdaq 100 entry, based on J.P. Morgan estimates. A Saudi Aramco helicopter crash at Ras Tanura killed 14 people. The US sanctioned eight individuals and entities, including an Indian national, over alleged arms supply to Sudan’s civil war.

Mint, News in Numbers

Management chatter

Scott Bessent on the tariff program

“We have rebooted the tariff program. Right now, we have something called Section 122 tariffs, which is a 10% global tariff. Currently, USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer is doing studies for Section 301, and if those studies are successful... then the tariff rates are going to go back to exactly where they were.”
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

Zerodha

Girish Wagh on road freight and CV demand

“Till the time we see GDP growth happening in the range of 6-8 per cent, we should see a healthy growth in road freight. The cyclical headwinds will lead to some changes in the quarterly demand... but I think in the long term India’s growth story will lead to an increase in road freight, and therefore the commercial vehicle demand.”
Girish Wagh, MD and CEO, Tata Motors

Zerodha

Anish Tawakley on the domestic economy

“The domestic economy is in good shape: demand is recovering and there is still spare capacity.”
Anish Tawakley, CIO, DSP Asset Managers

Mint, Mark to Market

Monday feature: Weekend recap

Growth forecasts rise, festive output builds, and deeptech funding changes shape

The Economic Times, Mumbai edition, 27 June 2026; The Economic Times, Bangalore edition, 28 June 2026

Markets and macro

Goldman Sachs raised its India FY27 growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.4%. It cited lower oil prices and easing supply constraints. It also cut its FY27 inflation outlook to 4.9% from 5.2%.

Exhibit 9
Goldman raised India's FY27 growth view and cut its inflation outlook
Goldman Sachs India FY27 forecasts, %, before and after revision
Before After revision 6.4% FY27 growth 5.2% FY27 inflation 6.5% raised 4.9% cut FY27 growth forecast FY27 inflation outlook

The Economic Times.

The improved growth view came alongside criticism from New Delhi. Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said India’s growth was “not recognised” by global rating agencies. He argued that their credibility has “failed to adequately reflect India’s growth trajectory and economic fundamentals”.

On trade, India initiated an anti-dumping probe into steel imports from China, Japan, and Russia. The probe followed an application by JSW Vijayanagar Metallics, Jindal Steel & Power (Odisha), and the Directorate General of Trade Remedies.

On reserves, forex reserves rose to about $963 billion in the week ended 26 June. The share of gold in the reserves also rose.

The Economic Times

Corporate

Tata Sons returned to profit in FY26. It reported ₹32,000 crore in profit after tax on ₹42,000 crore revenue and announced a ₹3,000 crore dividend for the Tata Trusts. The figures were rounded.

Outside India, Volkswagen is considering plant shutdowns and around 100,000 job cuts. The company is restructuring amid tariff pressures.

Two consumer trends stood out over the weekend. Luxury car sales, meaning cars costing more than ₹40 lakh, are likely to remain flat in H1 2026. Rising prices and higher geopolitical tensions are weighing on buyer decisions after a five-year strong run.

Apple price hikes hit Indian buyers the hardest. Prices rose 14% to 70% across products. The increase was driven by rising chip costs linked to the AI boom, a falling rupee, and steep import duties.

Consumer companies are preparing for the festive season by raising production. Output may be increased by up to 30% on hopes of strong demand. The season begins with Onam in August and continues through Navratri and Diwali in October to November.

The Economic Times; ET Companies; ET Brands

Sectors and policy

India’s ethanol strategy “goes against the grain”. Policy changes are opening the way for EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles powered by flex fuel to coexist. This means India is taking a different path from several global peers.

A related report said India may need more rice-based ethanol for E20 blending because of the El Niño effect.

On clean mobility, the Centre is preparing a ₹12,000 crore scheme to encourage private e-bus purchases. The plan aims to deploy 50,000 electric buses over 10 years. Funds will be disbursed over five years through a mix of interest subvention, partial credit guarantees, and capital subsidies.

The West Asia war may delay India’s semiconductor projects. Tata Electronics’ Dholera fab, assembly, and test facilities are likely to be affected by shipping-blockade and input-cost pressures. OSAT construction schedules may be delayed by 6 to 12 months.

On the positive side, electronics minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said domestic PCB manufacturing could save foreign exchange worth about ₹40,000 crore each year. The Centre laid the foundation for ₹6,750 crore projects in Jewar.

The Economic Times

Weekend numbers

Goldman lifted growth and cut inflation as the Centre readied a ₹12,000 crore e-bus scheme
Selected weekend readings
IndicatorLatest reading
Goldman Sachs India FY27 growth forecast6.5%, raised from 6.4%
Goldman Sachs FY27 inflation outlook4.9%, cut from 5.2%
Forex reserves, week ended 26 JuneAbout $963 billion
Electric buses targeted over 10 years50,000
Centre’s private e-bus scheme₹12,000 crore
Apple price hikes across products in India14% to 70%
Possible domestic PCB foreign exchange savingsAbout ₹40,000 crore annually
Jewar projects₹6,750 crore

The Economic Times

Markets lens: H1 2026 funding

India’s seed and early-stage companies are raising almost twice as much per round as they did a year ago. Venture firms are front-loading capital for more mature products and business models that need upfront spending. This is happening as VCs bet on AI and deeptech.

Total seed funding fell to $541 million from $758 million. Even so, the average seed cheque size rose to $1.3 million from $1 million. Early-stage total funding rose to $2.8 billion.

Exhibit 10
Total seed funding fell even as the average cheque size rose
Seed funding, this period vs a year ago
Year ago Latest $0 $758M Year ago $541M Latest Total seed funding ($M) $1.0M Year ago $1.3M Latest Average seed cheque ($M) Groups use separate scales. Early-stage total funding $2.8bn (latest); year-ago not reported.

The Economic Times.

Closing quote

“Buy right, sit tight.”
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Compiled from the Zerodha AfterMarket Report (25 June 2026 close); Mint (Mumbai edition, 29 June 2026); and The Economic Times (Mumbai, 27 June 2026 and Bangalore, 28 June 2026). Compiled from sourced reporting only. Markets data reflects Thursday, 25 June 2026 close (Friday, 26 June was a market holiday). This is not investment advice.

About the author Devraj Pant

Devraj works as a Wealth Manager at Dhanashree Wealth Pvt. Ltd. He is a CFA Level II candidate.

Compiled from the Zerodha AfterMarket Report (25 June 2026 close), Mint (Mumbai edition, 29 June 2026), and The Economic Times (Mumbai, 27 June 2026 and Bangalore, 28 June 2026). Friday, 26 June 2026 was a market holiday, so market data reflects the Thursday, 25 June 2026 close. For information only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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