DayStarter

Market snapshot

Equities: Tuesday close

Indian equities ended lower on Tuesday, although the Nifty recovered sharply from its intraday low. The Nifty 50 opened 48 points lower at 22,732, touched a high of 22,753 and a low of 22,570, and closed at 22,716.20, down 0.28%. It never moved above Monday’s close, but recovered nearly 140 points from the day’s low and finished only 16 points below its opening level.

The Sensex closed at 72,529.07, down 242.65 points or 0.33%. The Nifty Next 50 fell 1.21% to 69,460.20, while the BSE 150 MidCap fell 0.74% to 16,185.16.

The Nifty closed the September derivatives series at its weakest monthly expiry in six months. It was down 6.6% from the 25 August expiry close of 24,334.55. The lowest monthly expiry this year was on 30 March, when the index closed at 22,331.4. Tuesday’s expiry also coincided with the semi-annual rebalancing of Nifty indices.

Broad market

Every major market-cap segment except microcaps fell on the day, and only the Nifty Microcap 250 was higher over the day itself. The Nifty Midcap 150 had the weakest 20-session performance in the table.

Sector performance

Only four of the 15 sector indices gained. Metal was strongest, up 0.78%, while Consumer Durables was weakest, down 2.71%. Pharma, Media and Metals led the market over both 20 and 60 sessions.

Winners and losers

Kirloskar Oil Engines rose 12.18% on 13 times its usual volume. Honasa Consumer and PB Fintech recorded sharp high-volume declines. PB Fintech fell 6.1% on five times its usual volume. BSE saw a major delivery spike, with 75% delivery on ₹9,579 crore of turnover.

Zydus Lifesciences touched a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,232.10. The stock has gained 33% in 2026, compared with a 19% rise in the Nifty Pharma index.

Commodities and currency

Commodity prices were mixed at the 20:36 IST MCX snapshot. Natural gas was down 2.3%, crude oil fell 1.2%, gold rose 0.7%, copper was flat and zinc rose 0.6%.

Crude oil fell below $91 per barrel as markets assessed diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in the Middle East. The rupee was at ₹95.95 per US dollar, stronger by ₹0.02. The euro was at ₹108.79, up ₹0.39, and the pound was at ₹126.92, up ₹0.34. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 52 basis points from the end of August to a two-decade high of 5.28%.

Institutional flows

Foreign investors sold a net ₹5,500 crore of Indian shares on 29 September, while domestic institutions bought a net ₹7,000 crore. Foreign positioning also remained strongly bearish: only 8.6% of FII index-futures positions were long, and eight of the 12 largest single-stock open-interest moves were short buildups.

Foreign portfolio investors have sold ₹34,609 crore of Indian shares in the cash market so far in September, after net buying of ₹24,098 crore in the previous two months.

The macro view

Inflation, rates and liquidity

• Headline retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July.
• Nomura expects the RBI Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December, then pause. Market pricing points to as much as 125 basis points of tightening.
• The RBI’s next policy decision is due on 7 October. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 17 September.
• Retail inflation averaged 4.2% between April and August of FY27, compared with 2.5% in the same period of FY26.
• The RBI’s special overseas borrowing windows attracted $143.6 billion by 18 September. Around 93% came through FCNR deposits. The FCNR window ended on 31 August, while the ECB windows remain open until 31 December.
• System liquidity was in a surplus of ₹4.8 trillion on 28 September, down from a surplus of ₹5 trillion a month earlier.
• Scheduled commercial bank credit grew 19.3% year on year in July, the fastest pace in 26 months. Outstanding credit reached ₹220.8 lakh crore. Industry loans grew 21.6%, services loans 21.2% and personal loans 16.6%.

Growth and consumption

• Ten of the 19 subsectors in the new Index of Services Production recorded double-digit growth in July 2026. Seven more subsectors also grew. This was the fourth trial release using 2024-25 as the base year.
• Administrative and support services grew 20.9%, retail trade 18.5%, real estate 14.4%, accommodation and food services 12.6%, and banking 12.3%. Air transport fell 8.4% and repair services fell 5%.
• Private consumption grew 7.1% year on year in the June quarter of FY27, compared with 6.8% a year earlier and 7.5% in the March quarter of FY26.
• Consumer-durables output in the IIP grew 9.4% year on year between April and August of FY27, compared with 2.6% in the same period of FY26.
• The auto industry sold 2.08 million passenger vehicles between April and August, 21% more than the 1.71 million sold a year earlier.
• Manufacturers of air conditioners, televisions, washing machines and refrigerators plan price increases of 5% to 8% from October.

Trade and exports

• India is considering raising the combined tax-refund outlay under RoDTEP and RoSCTL to almost ₹2 trillion over the next five years.
• The commerce ministry is seeking a RoDTEP corpus of more than ₹1.3 trillion, over 70% higher than the previous five-year allocation through FY26. The textiles ministry is seeking a near 50% increase in RoSCTL to ₹65,000 crore.
• The proposals are expected to go to the Cabinet within a month. RoDTEP refund rates range from 0.3% to about 4.5% of FOB value, while RoSCTL rates range from 1.7% to 8.2%.
• The US included India among 20 jurisdictions eligible for zero tariffs on specified specialty pharmaceutical products and ingredients under its Section 232 framework, subject to conditions.
• Commerce minister Piyush Goyal will hold bilateral meetings with his US counterpart during a seven-day US visit. The trip includes the G20 Trade Ministers’ meeting in Milwaukee from 30 September to 1 October.
• The Directorate General for Trade Remedies started a probe into alleged dumping of seven products from China, including engineering and pharmaceutical goods.
• India imported edible oil worth $3.66 billion from Argentina in FY26, $3.48 billion from Indonesia and $2.94 billion from Malaysia. Palm oil imports rose 12% to $9.6 billion and soybean oil imports rose 23% to $6.2 billion.

Agriculture

• India set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, below actual production of 376.56 million tonnes in 2025-26.
• The rabi target is 177.72 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 171.14 million tonnes in 2025-26.
• Kharif sowing covered 110.39 million hectares as of 18 September, around 1.5 million hectares less than a year earlier. Rice acreage fell 3.7% to 42.9 million hectares, while pulses rose 1.4% to 11.9 million hectares.
• Preliminary reports show crop damage across around 611,000 hectares in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat because of heavy rains, floods or drought.
• Storage across 178 monitored reservoirs stood at 71%, compared with a normal level of 78.1%. This represents a 9.1% deficit.

Policy, infrastructure and regulation

• The Kerala High Court ruled on 28 September that the Centre can use Section 100 of the Patents Act, 1970, to use a patented drug for public-health purposes.
• India has issued a compulsory licence only once, in 2012, to Natco Pharma for Bayer’s Nexavar.
• India aims to reach 600 million tonnes of steelmaking capacity by 2047 under its new steel policy.
• Diplomatic discussions are underway to secure access to Chinese airspace near Hotan in Xinjiang.
• Pakistan’s airspace has been closed to Indian airlines for 15 months. The latest NOTAM runs until 24 October 2026, and flight times have increased by about 45 minutes to two hours.
• The Indian Banks’ Association set up a committee led by Bank of India MD and CEO Rajneesh Karnatak to discuss a five-day banking week with unions. The United Forum of Bank Unions deferred its 28 to 30 September strike.
• India’s real estate sector attracted a record $9.5 billion of equity investment in Q3 2026, more than double the $4.4 billion recorded a year earlier.
• Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Bengaluru together accounted for 48% of housing sales across India’s top seven cities during July to September.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Corporate action and earnings

Tata Sons restructuring

Tata Trusts’ proposal to merge Tata Consulting Engineers and Tata Electronics Systems Solutions into Tata Sons is based on the two companies’ clean shareholding structures and their operating revenues.

Tata Trusts estimates that after the merger, around 64% of Tata Sons’ revenue would come from operating businesses. This could potentially move Tata Sons out of the NBFC category and outside the RBI’s regulatory remit.

Tata Electronics Systems Solutions reported FY26 standalone revenue of ₹67,542 crore and profit of ₹1,025 crore. Tata Consulting Engineers reported revenue of ₹1,932 crore and profit of ₹226 crore. On 17 September, Tata Trusts chairman Noel Tata opposed N. Chandrasekaran’s reappointment for a third term as chairman of Tata Sons.

Deals and fundraising

• Permira and TPG Capital acquired stakes in Cloudnine Hospitals from True North and TPG NewQuest in a $450 million secondary deal that valued the company at around $1.3 billion.
• Permira bought True North’s 25% stake for $250 million. After the transaction is completed, Cloudnine plans to prepare for a public listing over the next 24 to 36 months.
• KKR is acquiring a majority stake in Cisternina Logistics as the anchor for a platform built through the proposed acquisition of Ganesh Benzoplast’s liquid storage terminal and rail business. Financial terms were not disclosed.
• Linux Laboratories raised $70 million from ChrysCapital and Tata Capital Healthcare Fund III. The transaction includes primary capital and a secondary sale by Tata Capital Healthcare Fund II at around four times its investment.
• Carlyle-backed Highway Roop Precision Technologies acquired aluminium die-cast maker Chamundi Die Cast. Financial terms were not disclosed.
• Nuvoco Vistas will acquire a 26% stake in a CleanMax special-purpose vehicle developing a hybrid renewable-energy project at Bhikamkhore in Rajasthan.
• Tata Motors subsidiary TML Smart City Mobility Solutions acquired a 26% stake in Hyderabad-based Mateshwari E-Smart Mobility.
• Sun Pharmaceutical Industries plans to raise around ₹10,000 crore through rupee-denominated debt to partly fund the nearly $12 billion bridge loan it took to acquire Organon.
• Essar-backed Mesabi Metallics plans to invest $18 billion in the US. The plan includes a proposed $15 billion steel complex in Iowa and around $3 billion in Minnesota iron-ore operations, with a target of 10 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2030.

Primary market

• EverBrands India, Subway’s India operator, filed its DRHP with Sebi for a ₹600 crore IPO consisting entirely of fresh shares. Around ₹125 crore is planned for debt repayment and ₹326.85 crore for new company-operated stores.
• Ace Designers, a Bengaluru-based industrial-machinery maker, has started talks with banks about a possible IPO that could raise as much as $400 million.
• Ola Electric Mobility plans to raise ₹1,000 crore through a rights issue of partly paid-up equity shares, subject to regulatory approvals.

Earnings and sector updates

• Zydus Lifesciences’ net profit fell 36% to ₹940 crore in Q1FY27. EBITDA margin fell 750 basis points year on year to 23.4%. US sales fell 12% in constant currency, while domestic formulations grew 19.5% to ₹1,820 crore.
• Asian Paints’ June-quarter revenue from operations rose 17.9% to ₹10,541.9 crore. Berger Paints’ revenue rose 12% to ₹3,583.75 crore.
• Paint companies have taken total price increases of around 13%. Crude accounts for around 25% of input costs.
• Petronet LNG’s Dahej capacity has risen to 22.5 million tonnes per annum from 17.5 million tonnes. Motilal Oswal expects utilisation to fall to 70% in FY27 from 91% in FY26, before recovering to 82% in FY28.
• Amazon Business has recorded 65% year-on-year sales growth nationally this year. Around 65% of its business customers are from tier-2 and tier-3 cities.

Markets and funds

• A Mint analysis of 3,756 BSE-listed companies found that the share of stocks trading above 40 times earnings fell to 26% from 36% in September 2024. The share trading at 10 to 25 times earnings rose to 26% from 18%.
• Among large caps, the share trading above 80 times earnings fell to 21.3% from 31.9%. Among mid-caps, 23.5% still trade above 80 times earnings, down from 30.9%.
• Legacy fund houses outperformed newer asset managers in four of six categories. Large- and mid-cap funds of legacy AMCs returned an average 3.2%, compared with 0.8% for newer players.
• Mutual fund assets under management grew around 16% year on year to ₹87.08 trillion as of August.
• HSBC Mutual Fund CEO Kailash Kulkarni is expected to retire early next year. Longtime HSBC executive Anuj Rathi is expected to succeed him. The fund house had assets of ₹1.44 trillion at the end of June.
• Multi-family offices accounted for around 17 of the 24 senior family-office appointments so far in 2026.

Regulatory and legal

• Sebi dropped minimum public shareholding and fraud allegations against Vinod Adani and 11 other noticees. The regulator said its investigation could not establish that he controlled two offshore funds that invested in four Adani group companies.
• Lloyds Enterprises and two senior executives settled a Sebi case for a combined ₹4.16 crore over alleged violations involving ₹144.82 crore of company funds, without admitting guilt.
• The Delhi High Court set aside an FSSAI order directing Red Bull India to stop using the term ‘energy drink’ on its labels. The court asked the regulator to issue a show-cause notice and start the process again.
• The NCLAT issued notices to creditors on a plea by Essel Group chairman Subhash Chandra in his personal insolvency case. Hearings are scheduled for 29 and 30 October.

Mint; Zerodha AfterMarket Report

Upcoming events

Global pulse

Global indices

Four of the eight overseas markets in the report rose in their latest completed session. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%, while the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.0%.

Energy and geopolitics

• US and Iranian officials continued indirect talks through mediators including Qatar, but doubts remained over a near-term agreement.
• Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes rose to almost 13 million barrels a day this month, the highest since February. The region exported nearly 19 million barrels a day in February.
• Shipments through Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of prewar regional flows as of last week.
• Saudi Arabia restarted exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu at around 3.5 million barrels a day.
• Loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port rose to around 6.5 million barrels a day from 1.5 million barrels a day in early September.
• Iranian crude already on ships outside the US blockade fell to around 15 million barrels from 29 million in early September. Kpler expects these stocks to be depleted by early to mid-October.
• President Donald Trump rejected a new Iranian ceasefire proposal on Friday. The proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and ended the US blockade of Iranian ports for seven days.

Macro, rates and currencies

• The US dollar strengthened towards multi-month highs as volatile oil prices and rising Treasury yields helped the currency. The euro fell as much as 0.32% to $1.13325, a three-month low.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around its highest level since mid-June 2007, increasing pressure on global borrowing costs.
• China’s State Council said it would put in place additional policies to help meet this year’s economic goals and would study measures to stabilise the property market.
• China’s growth was 4.3% in the previous quarter against a 4.5% annual target. A Bloomberg index of Chinese developers rose more than 4%, while the yuan strengthened 0.1% against the dollar.
• A US ban on nearly $1 billion of Canadian imports, including alcoholic beverages, dairy products and motorcycles, took effect early Tuesday. The two countries trade around $880 billion a year.

Technology and corporate

• OpenAI cancelled the release of GPT-6.1 Astra, which had been planned for an October launch in ChatGPT and Codex, after internal testing found that it did not meet the company’s safety and alignment bar.
• Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation above $2 trillion in its IPO. Its 2025 revenue rose 12 times to nearly $4.6 billion, while it reported a net loss of almost $42 billion.
• Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, devotes around 80 pages of its 261-page main section to risk factors.
• Bain & Company estimates that the global AI market must reach nearly $6 trillion a year by 2031 to fund AI infrastructure. Hyperscaler capital spending could reach $780 billion in 2026, almost five times the level three years earlier.
• Samsung Electronics and five affiliates are investing a combined $1 billion in a US AI data-centre company led by a former Amazon Web Services chief.
• Novo Nordisk will pay up to $2.6 billion, including $300 million upfront, to license an experimental obesity pill from China’s Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals.
• MSCI launched 14 AI value-chain indices covering global companies across physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure and applications.
• Google is appealing the European Commission’s move under the Digital Markets Act to require it to open Android to rival AI assistants and share search data.
• Netflix is down 26% this year and 48% from its June 2025 peak. Of the 65 analysts covering the stock, 48 rate it a buy, the fewest since March.
• Airbus flew its new A350 freighter for the first time on Tuesday. The aircraft has more than 100 orders and is expected to enter commercial service in the second half of next year.

Zerodha AfterMarket Report; Mint

Management chatter

Feature: How chipflation has pushed costs in India

An AI-driven rise in memory-chip prices is increasing India’s electronics import bill and raising the prices of phones, laptops and storage devices. The effect is visible in specific consumer-electronics categories, but their weight in the overall CPI basket is small, so the impact on headline retail inflation remains limited.

Where the squeeze began

The rise in electronics prices caused by memory chips is often called chipflation. The main trigger is the global build-out of AI data centres. These centres need large quantities of high-bandwidth memory and server-grade DRAM. As chipmakers shifted more production towards these higher-value products, the supply of conventional memory used in consumer electronics tightened and prices rose.

TrendForce’s forecasts show how quickly the shortage intensified. In early January, it expected conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 55% to 60% quarter on quarter in Q1 2026. By 2 February, it had raised the forecast to 90% to 95%. PC DRAM was expected to rise by more than 100%, while mobile DRAM was expected to rise around 90%. NAND flash, used in products such as pen drives and SSDs, was expected to rise 55% to 60% as suppliers shifted some production capacity towards DRAM.

DRAM prices rose more than 400% between August 2025 and March 2026 before easing. Even after that correction, DDR5 prices in August 2026 were 4.7 times their level a year earlier, while DDR4 prices were three times higher.

First impact: India’s import bill

India is a large consumer and assembler of electronics, but it still depends heavily on imported components. The first impact of chipflation therefore appears in the import bill.

Until January 2026, the year-on-year growth in the value and volume of India’s imports of electronic integrated circuits used as memories moved closely together. In February, value growth rose to 110% while volume grew only 18%. By June, import value was up 314% year on year, compared with a 60% rise in volume.

Memory chips represented only 12% of India’s total electronics imports, but price increases are also visible across other AI-linked products. Standard Chartered Bank estimated that the 12-month rolling trade deficit in AI-enabling products and networking hardware rose to 2.0% of GDP in July 2026 from 1.5% a year earlier. This was slightly higher than India’s gold trade deficit of 1.9% of GDP.

India’s total electronics imports reached $116.17 billion in FY2025-26, up 17.76% from $98.65 billion in FY25. Electronics exports were $48 billion, leaving an electronics trade deficit of around $68 billion.

From component costs to consumer prices

Memory already made up 10% to 15% of a smartphone’s bill of materials and 10% to 18% of a notebook’s when TrendForce reviewed the market in November 2025. It expected memory’s share in notebooks to exceed 20% in 2026. In India’s sub-₹15,000 smartphone segment, Counterpoint Research estimates that rising DRAM and NAND prices pushed memory’s share of the bill of materials from below 20% to more than 45%.

Device makers responded with price increases. More than 80 smartphone models recorded average price increases of 15% in the first quarter of 2026. TechArc data showed smartphone prices rising 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with price increases outnumbering price cuts by 4.4 to 1. Entry-level phones rose 17.6%.

Business Today reported that Samsung Galaxy S26 prices in India increased by ₹6,000 to ₹10,000 in March. It also reported laptop price increases of 15% to 30% across Dell, HP and Lenovo in June.

In Q2 2026, IDC recorded 33.2 million smartphone shipments in India, down 11.1% year on year. The average selling price rose 14.4% to a record $315. Shipments of phones priced below $100 fell 74.3%, and their share of the market dropped from 15.6% to 4.5%.

Counterpoint estimated that the average phone price was up around 15% by the end of the quarter. Shipments of phones priced below ₹15,000 fell 45%, while financing through NBFCs and card EMIs accounted for more than half of mainline smartphone sales.

IDC also counted 3.9 million PC shipments in India in Q2, up 12.1%. Channel partners continued to build inventory, but IDC said sharp increases in memory prices were raising overall device costs and increasing concern about further price rises.

The effect on retail inflation

Inflation in the information and communication part of the CPI, which includes pen drives, laptops and mobile devices, has been rising gradually. The strongest move is in pen drives and external hard disks, where inflation increased from 3.9% in January to 16.8% in August. These products use NAND flash memory, where supply has tightened as manufacturers shift capacity towards higher-value products.

Mobile handsets moved from deflation to inflation over the same period. Prices were down 2.3% year on year in January, but handset inflation rose above 3.5% in August, its highest level since at least January. Phones mainly use low-power LPDDR memory, which has also become more expensive.

The broader effect remains small because these items have low weights in the CPI basket. The full information and communication group has a 3.61% weight. Pen drives and external hard disks account for only 0.01%, mobile handsets 0.56%, and computers, laptops and tablets 0.04%. Rising costs contributed only 0.12 percentage points to August’s 4.8% retail inflation, including the effect of a sharp rise in mobile tariffs.

Sengupta expects inflation in this segment to remain gradual and concentrated among higher-income urban consumers, who are more exposed to expensive electronic devices.

The windfall for memory manufacturers

The same shortage that has raised costs for device makers has produced record earnings for memory manufacturers.

• Samsung Electronics reported Q2 2026 revenue of KRW 171.5 trillion and a record operating profit of KRW 89.5 trillion. Its semiconductor division contributed KRW 89.2 trillion. Samsung said rising industry prices contributed to record earnings, while its mobile division reported an operating loss of KRW 0.7 trillion because of higher component costs.
• SK hynix reported Q2 revenue of KRW 79.3 trillion, up 257% year on year, and operating profit of KRW 60.5 trillion, up 557%, with an operating margin of 76%. The company said both DRAM and NAND prices rose sharply quarter on quarter.
• Micron reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, compared with $9.30 billion a year earlier, and GAAP net income of $28.24 billion. It guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion.

What comes next

TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13% to 18% in Q3 and NAND flash prices to rise 10% to 15%. It expects the DRAM market to remain very tight, although weaker consumer demand and a higher comparison base should slow the pace of price increases.

Its 24 September Q4 outlook says cloud-service-provider demand will keep DRAM and NAND prices rising, led by AI, while higher costs reduce notebook and smartphone shipments. On 29 September, TrendForce forecast blended HBM prices to rise 121% in 2027 because HBM and conventional DRAM are competing for limited advanced-process and wafer capacity.

IDC’s Upasana Joshi expects smartphone shipments to fall by more than 15% in the second half of the year, taking full-year volumes to around 128 to 130 million units. The India Electronics and Semiconductor Association said in May that consumers are likely to face elevated memory prices for the next 12 to 18 months because no major capacity additions are planned, and that Micron’s entire India memory-production capacity has already been booked.

Micron’s Sanand facility in Gujarat was the first proposal approved under the India Semiconductor Mission. It involves investment of more than ₹22,500 crore and converts DRAM and NAND wafers into finished memory and storage products. In July, the Cabinet approved the second phase of the India Semiconductor Mission, ISM 2.0, with an outlay of ₹1.27 lakh crore.

For now, chipflation is unlikely to show up broadly across the Indian economy. Its impact is concentrated in the electronic products that use memory chips most heavily.

Mint; TrendForce; IDC; Counterpoint Research; Omdia; Samsung; SK hynix; Micron; India Electronics and Semiconductor Association

The day at a glance

Closing note

Market data: Zerodha AfterMarket Report, 29 September 2026 close; Mint, Mumbai edition, 30 September 2026. This is a news aggregation brief. Not investment advice.